***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 24.4 22.6 0.0 50.3 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 24.4 23.8 22.2 -0.1 47.8 48.5 22.3 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 24.4 23.6 22.4 -0.3 46.1 46.9 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 16.9 16.2 20.3 -0.2 46.3 47.4 15.0 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 24.5 23.3 20.6 -0.6 41.0 42.6 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 23.0 21.6 18.3 -0.7 38.8 40.4 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 24.0 23.4 22.1 -0.1 47.8 48.5 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.5 10.8 18.4 -1.0 36.3 38.0 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 23.9 22.8 21.5 -0.6 41.7 43.1 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 23.7 22.5 19.6 -0.8 39.4 40.9 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 24.1 22.7 20.2 -0.8 38.7 40.2 22.2 23.7 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.3 21.6 19.1 -1.1 35.1 36.9 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.4 22.6 19.2 -1.1 34.8 36.7 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 24.3 23.0 20.8 -0.7 40.8 41.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 24.4 24.3 22.4 0.2 53.8 54.0 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 24.8 23.3 19.9 -0.8 38.2 39.8 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 23.6 22.7 21.5 -0.4 44.1 45.0 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 23.4 22.0 18.7 -0.9 38.8 40.3 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 23.9 23.1 22.2 -0.2 46.8 47.6 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.6 16.7 16.3 -1.2 35.4 37.2 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 24.1 23.1 22.2 -0.5 42.8 44.0 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 24.2 23.0 21.4 -0.6 41.4 42.5 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 24.3 23.4 22.1 -0.4 44.8 45.8 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 23.7 22.4 20.7 -0.7 40.8 42.0 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 24.1 23.3 21.2 -0.3 46.2 47.3 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.4 21.5 18.1 -1.3 31.4 33.5 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 24.0 23.5 21.9 -0.1 49.0 49.6 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 24.3 23.6 21.1 -0.2 47.2 48.2 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.5 16.8 17.8 -1.0 37.4 38.9 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 24.2 23.7 22.4 -0.1 48.8 49.5 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------