***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 36.6 47.1 51.7 144.3 83.3 73.4 16.2 23.7 32.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 37.0 49.4 49.9 147.4 84.0 72.6 16.4 24.1 33.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 50.2 64.5 53.3 142.1 83.4 72.7 24.2 33.9 45.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 51.0 58.2 56.8 131.6 78.5 68.2 26.9 36.2 46.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 50.7 60.3 59.9 135.3 80.8 70.4 25.7 35.3 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 43.6 51.0 59.4 132.2 79.0 67.8 20.1 29.0 39.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 34.7 45.5 48.8 147.1 84.0 72.2 16.1 23.0 31.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 65.4 75.9 61.4 132.9 78.9 69.2 34.3 46.7 60.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 41.6 49.8 60.6 134.1 80.2 70.0 19.2 27.5 37.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 49.0 57.9 63.4 133.0 79.4 69.6 23.8 33.4 44.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 42.4 51.4 56.0 134.7 79.8 69.6 20.1 28.7 39.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 41.8 51.8 54.0 133.2 78.8 68.5 17.2 26.5 38.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 43.7 53.4 57.9 135.4 79.7 69.2 21.6 30.5 40.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 60.3 72.7 64.7 135.6 80.8 70.4 34.5 45.1 57.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 44.1 53.8 54.9 134.6 78.4 68.7 17.5 27.4 39.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 40.7 50.2 55.2 134.0 79.5 68.9 19.1 27.8 37.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 34.3 47.4 49.0 151.0 84.8 73.1 14.5 21.8 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 45.9 54.4 69.1 131.8 79.0 69.6 21.5 30.7 41.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 40.8 53.3 51.3 145.7 83.9 72.5 20.1 28.1 37.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 51.0 59.1 79.3 132.3 78.9 70.2 22.1 32.5 44.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 46.1 56.6 56.9 140.1 82.6 72.5 23.1 31.6 41.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 39.8 54.1 52.1 148.8 84.4 73.1 17.6 25.9 35.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 39.0 52.1 54.4 142.5 83.6 71.7 19.6 27.4 36.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 51.7 62.2 63.0 135.2 80.8 70.6 29.5 38.7 49.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 49.1 60.6 60.1 142.3 83.6 74.0 24.7 33.6 43.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 37.9 47.0 56.1 136.1 79.7 69.2 15.9 24.1 34.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 41.9 52.6 55.8 142.0 82.7 72.8 19.3 27.6 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 39.5 46.8 54.4 129.8 77.0 66.6 16.1 25.1 36.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 71.0 81.8 73.0 131.3 78.7 69.8 35.3 48.8 64.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 37.6 49.6 50.1 145.4 83.8 72.5 17.2 24.8 33.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------