***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 6.0 5.8 4.2 1.7 66.1 63.8 2.3 4.1 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 5.1 5.0 4.2 2.0 67.6 65.1 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 6.3 6.3 4.4 1.9 67.1 64.4 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.1 61.2 60.0 -1.8 0.2 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.7 2.6 1.4 64.1 62.0 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 4.4 5.7 2.3 1.7 67.6 64.6 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 4.7 4.6 4.1 2.0 67.7 65.3 0.7 2.6 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 0.3 1.5 2.7 1.6 66.9 64.0 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 5.6 6.8 3.5 1.6 65.4 62.8 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 4.5 5.8 3.2 1.7 66.6 63.7 2.2 4.0 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 4.9 6.0 2.7 1.5 65.7 63.2 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.3 6.6 2.9 1.6 67.0 64.3 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 4.6 6.0 2.6 1.7 67.6 64.8 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.3 4.3 2.1 69.4 66.0 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 4.6 5.0 1.7 0.9 58.4 57.8 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.3 6.5 2.4 1.6 66.1 63.6 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 4.6 4.5 4.0 2.0 67.2 64.7 0.8 2.6 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 2.7 3.8 3.4 1.8 68.1 64.8 0.8 2.2 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 5.5 5.5 4.4 2.0 67.8 65.1 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 1.5 2.7 1.9 1.6 67.0 63.7 -0.7 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.1 6.2 3.9 1.6 65.3 62.8 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.5 5.3 4.2 2.0 67.7 64.9 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 5.3 5.3 4.6 2.0 68.4 65.4 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 7.4 7.7 4.2 1.9 68.4 65.2 3.1 5.3 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.8 2.6 1.3 63.2 61.6 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 4.6 5.9 2.5 1.7 68.3 65.3 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.8 3.5 1.6 65.4 63.4 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.3 6.1 1.9 1.1 60.9 59.7 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.7 4.2 2.9 1.8 68.0 64.8 0.3 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 5.0 4.9 4.3 2.0 67.6 65.1 1.0 2.9 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------