***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 5.7 6.3 6.4 3.0 81.0 77.9 2.8 3.9 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 5.1 5.5 6.3 2.9 79.1 76.3 2.0 3.2 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 6.4 7.0 6.8 2.9 80.0 76.6 3.3 4.6 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 2.0 2.8 3.9 3.0 82.6 78.2 -1.1 0.1 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 6.1 6.9 5.0 2.9 82.5 78.1 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 5.5 6.2 4.0 2.6 81.2 76.1 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 4.7 5.2 6.2 2.9 79.5 76.7 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 0.7 1.2 4.2 2.4 79.4 74.5 -1.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 7.0 7.7 5.8 2.9 81.8 77.3 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 5.8 6.4 5.0 2.6 80.7 75.8 3.2 4.3 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 6.2 6.9 5.2 2.9 82.1 77.4 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 6.5 7.1 4.6 2.6 80.7 75.8 3.7 4.9 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 5.9 6.6 4.6 2.6 80.7 75.8 3.2 4.4 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 6.7 7.5 6.3 2.7 78.9 74.8 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 6.0 6.9 4.9 3.0 82.2 78.3 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 6.7 7.4 4.7 2.8 81.7 77.0 3.8 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 4.5 5.0 6.1 2.7 78.7 75.9 1.6 2.8 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 3.9 4.3 4.9 2.5 80.0 75.1 1.8 2.7 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 5.5 6.0 6.5 2.9 79.1 76.1 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 3.0 3.4 3.0 2.1 77.8 73.0 0.4 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 6.5 7.2 6.4 2.9 81.1 77.2 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 5.2 5.8 6.2 2.7 78.3 75.4 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 5.3 5.8 6.7 2.9 79.3 75.9 2.3 3.5 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 7.1 7.8 6.2 2.7 79.7 75.3 4.0 5.3 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 5.2 5.9 5.3 3.1 82.4 78.8 2.3 3.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 5.5 6.0 3.8 2.3 79.7 75.1 3.2 4.1 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 6.1 6.8 6.0 3.0 81.6 78.4 3.0 4.3 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 6.7 7.7 4.4 2.9 81.8 77.3 3.1 4.6 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 3.7 4.2 4.2 2.3 79.0 74.2 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 5.0 5.5 6.3 2.9 79.5 76.7 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------