***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9.4 10.9 14.1 140.5 75.4 60.2 2.8 5.1 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 11.4 13.5 147.8 77.0 60.2 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.3 13.5 13.3 136.5 74.4 59.2 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.8 13.6 127.9 72.0 57.0 4.5 7.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.4 13.2 121.3 69.9 54.2 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.3 8.0 11.3 100.3 62.5 50.4 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.9 11.2 13.7 152.8 78.1 61.2 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.1 14.8 15.3 123.1 70.4 52.9 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.7 13.7 120.0 69.6 54.3 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.2 14.5 118.2 69.0 53.3 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.3 12.6 115.3 68.0 52.4 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.0 12.8 115.8 68.2 51.6 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.0 12.2 105.6 64.4 50.5 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.6 19.6 15.9 126.8 71.7 56.3 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.5 13.1 129.8 72.6 57.3 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.2 12.0 110.6 66.2 51.5 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 8.6 11.3 13.7 153.0 78.1 62.2 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.5 11.6 16.4 125.5 71.3 54.5 4.1 6.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.2 11.8 13.2 141.1 75.5 59.3 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 14.2 24.1 141.3 75.5 54.9 4.1 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.3 13.6 129.1 72.3 57.3 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.9 11.7 13.6 143.9 76.2 60.9 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.8 10.5 13.3 132.9 73.5 58.2 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.7 15.2 15.0 128.2 72.1 56.4 5.0 8.5 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 12.6 13.7 15.3 137.5 74.7 60.8 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.2 12.7 112.6 67.1 52.8 2.6 4.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 11.5 13.2 14.9 140.4 75.4 60.7 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.4 12.1 119.0 69.3 54.5 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 20.6 19.0 132.3 73.2 55.1 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.1 11.3 13.5 144.8 76.4 59.8 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------