***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 13.7 11.3 24.2 48.7 17.2 20.6 17.5 24.9 33.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 12.2 9.8 20.8 47.8 18.5 21.2 16.0 24.1 34.2 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 19.1 16.7 25.4 51.7 18.6 21.6 24.2 33.6 44.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 23.6 20.5 29.9 53.1 19.2 22.4 27.7 36.5 46.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 21.8 18.0 29.6 52.9 16.7 20.4 25.6 33.8 42.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 15.9 16.2 32.9 65.5 26.8 28.6 19.0 26.9 35.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 12.1 10.0 20.2 47.2 18.4 20.9 16.0 23.8 33.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 27.3 23.7 33.2 58.4 19.3 22.5 32.6 44.2 57.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 16.8 14.5 31.7 56.2 19.2 22.2 19.9 26.8 34.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 18.7 15.7 33.3 57.5 18.3 21.7 22.8 31.4 41.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 18.2 15.6 30.1 55.5 18.2 21.3 21.7 29.0 37.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 16.9 14.5 30.6 58.8 20.2 23.3 20.6 29.5 40.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 19.1 16.6 32.4 58.9 19.3 23.3 22.9 30.7 39.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 31.3 30.5 34.7 58.6 21.0 23.6 37.1 46.3 56.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 16.0 15.3 28.5 54.0 25.5 25.9 19.3 29.6 42.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 16.6 14.9 31.0 58.4 20.6 23.6 20.0 27.4 35.8 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 11.7 8.8 19.2 45.5 17.0 19.7 15.4 23.2 32.8 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 18.0 15.9 35.8 60.2 19.8 22.8 22.0 30.0 39.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 16.7 14.4 21.9 49.0 18.5 21.5 20.9 28.8 37.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 19.2 16.2 40.0 56.7 17.9 21.8 24.4 34.3 45.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 20.1 17.2 29.1 54.0 18.5 21.6 23.8 31.5 40.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 14.2 11.4 20.9 47.3 18.2 21.0 17.8 26.3 36.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 15.0 13.4 24.8 51.8 18.8 21.9 19.5 27.2 36.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 26.1 25.2 33.3 59.1 21.0 23.5 30.5 38.0 45.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 18.9 14.5 27.7 48.7 14.5 19.1 23.9 32.8 42.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 13.7 11.3 31.4 59.5 21.2 25.2 16.2 24.0 33.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 14.8 11.8 25.6 49.3 16.6 20.5 19.5 27.8 37.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 15.2 13.9 29.0 55.5 23.0 24.7 18.4 26.5 36.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 30.2 27.6 37.7 60.5 20.0 23.0 36.6 48.8 62.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 14.0 12.0 21.8 48.8 19.1 21.9 17.8 25.8 35.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------