***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 6.3 5.4 2.6 72.1 71.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.8 5.9 5.2 2.8 72.2 71.6 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.6 5.3 2.3 69.5 68.9 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.9 58.4 58.3 -1.7 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 5.1 6.5 3.1 1.6 64.7 64.3 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 6.4 6.4 2.6 1.6 67.7 66.8 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 5.6 5.8 5.2 3.0 73.7 73.0 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 47 53 100 0.4 0.3 2.9 1.5 65.5 64.8 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 7.7 7.6 4.4 1.9 67.1 66.5 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 47 53 100 6.4 6.4 3.6 1.6 65.3 64.7 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 5.2 6.7 3.4 1.6 65.6 65.0 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 7.3 7.3 3.2 1.6 66.5 65.7 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 6.8 6.7 3.5 1.6 66.6 65.8 2.6 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 7.8 7.7 4.9 2.0 66.2 65.5 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 97 3 100 4.0 4.7 2.1 0.7 56.8 56.6 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 5.8 7.2 3.1 1.6 65.3 64.7 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.2 4.8 2.7 71.4 70.8 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 4.6 4.5 3.5 1.7 66.5 65.7 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.7 5.3 2.7 71.2 70.6 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 3.8 3.7 2.1 1.6 68.0 67.1 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.3 4.9 2.0 67.7 67.1 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.9 4.8 2.4 69.3 68.7 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 6.0 6.2 5.3 2.4 69.8 69.1 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 8.1 8.1 4.6 1.9 66.6 65.9 3.4 5.7 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 5.4 5.5 3.8 2.0 68.3 67.8 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.2 2.9 1.6 68.9 68.0 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 7.5 7.7 4.9 2.5 71.8 71.1 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 97 3 100 5.1 5.9 1.8 0.7 56.6 56.4 2.7 5.0 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.3 4.2 3.0 1.8 68.2 67.3 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 5.8 5.9 5.4 2.8 72.4 71.8 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------