***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 16.4 21.4 33.2 82.4 39.9 37.2 18.5 25.8 34.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 14.7 21.4 32.3 86.1 44.8 41.2 15.7 24.0 34.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 23.5 30.1 34.4 84.7 41.9 38.7 25.5 34.6 44.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 27.1 32.1 34.2 78.4 39.8 38.5 28.7 37.5 47.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 26.0 31.3 37.3 84.4 43.2 41.2 26.5 34.6 43.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 31.7 26.6 36.8 87.7 47.8 45.9 20.0 27.6 36.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 14.8 20.1 31.7 84.8 43.6 40.6 15.3 23.3 33.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 33.1 43.7 42.7 90.2 48.1 45.6 33.2 45.2 58.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.9 24.6 39.8 86.9 43.9 41.3 20.5 27.2 34.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.9 30.3 43.6 90.8 47.5 44.6 23.2 31.6 41.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 33.8 28.0 36.2 86.0 44.9 42.9 23.3 30.1 37.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 35.0 29.3 37.2 89.6 48.5 46.0 21.3 30.2 40.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 35.2 30.5 37.4 89.0 48.3 46.1 23.6 31.4 40.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 35.2 43.7 44.1 90.1 45.6 42.7 37.1 46.1 55.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 19.8 24.5 30.9 73.6 39.9 38.2 20.5 30.8 43.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 32.0 26.0 34.8 85.3 45.4 43.5 20.7 28.0 36.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.3 19.5 31.3 86.5 45.7 42.0 13.6 21.7 31.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 22.0 29.5 48.6 92.4 48.2 45.1 22.3 30.3 39.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 19.7 26.5 33.5 86.8 44.8 41.0 21.2 29.0 38.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 40.0 32.9 54.7 89.4 47.3 45.0 25.1 34.6 45.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 21.8 27.3 36.0 83.6 40.8 38.3 23.9 31.4 39.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 15.4 22.2 33.2 88.0 46.1 42.2 15.7 24.4 34.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 19.2 25.2 36.1 87.7 44.4 40.8 20.4 27.7 36.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 32.2 38.3 43.1 90.3 46.0 42.9 33.2 39.9 47.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 22.4 28.5 37.9 83.1 41.2 38.7 24.3 33.2 43.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.4 24.5 37.3 89.7 49.4 47.0 17.2 24.9 34.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 18.3 23.9 36.5 83.7 41.1 38.5 20.1 28.1 37.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 18.7 23.0 32.2 77.1 40.9 39.5 19.5 27.4 36.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 37.9 49.7 52.4 93.8 49.9 46.5 38.1 49.9 62.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 17.0 23.1 32.6 85.2 43.4 40.1 18.4 26.2 35.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------