***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 5.7 5.9 6.2 2.3 71.8 66.9 2.2 3.8 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 5.3 5.3 6.1 2.1 70.5 66.3 1.6 3.3 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 6.7 6.8 6.7 2.3 71.8 66.7 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.6 3.9 2.4 72.8 66.5 -2.5 -0.4 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 6.4 6.8 5.0 2.4 72.7 67.0 2.9 4.5 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 6.3 6.8 4.6 2.6 74.4 68.4 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.1 6.1 2.1 71.0 66.8 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.3 1.7 4.8 2.4 73.2 67.7 -2.1 -0.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.8 5.9 2.5 72.9 67.3 3.4 5.2 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 6.5 7.0 5.5 2.5 73.2 67.6 2.8 4.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 6.7 7.2 5.2 2.5 73.3 67.8 2.9 4.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.2 7.6 5.1 2.5 73.5 68.3 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 6.7 7.1 4.6 2.5 73.5 68.5 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.7 6.4 2.4 72.0 66.7 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.3 4.5 2.2 71.5 66.0 1.5 3.6 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.8 4.9 2.5 73.9 68.3 3.4 5.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.8 6.1 2.1 70.7 66.2 1.3 2.9 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 4.7 5.1 5.5 2.5 72.3 67.1 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 5.8 5.8 6.4 2.2 70.6 66.1 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 4.4 4.7 3.5 2.1 70.6 66.2 0.8 2.5 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.8 7.1 6.3 2.4 72.9 67.2 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 5.7 5.7 6.3 2.1 70.6 65.9 1.8 3.5 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 5.6 5.6 6.8 2.3 71.1 66.2 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.6 6.3 2.4 72.3 66.9 3.1 5.0 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 5.4 5.6 4.9 2.3 72.7 67.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 6.4 6.7 4.3 2.3 73.8 68.9 3.0 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 6.4 6.6 5.8 2.3 72.3 67.1 2.5 4.3 5.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.4 4.4 2.5 73.0 66.8 2.1 4.3 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.6 5.0 4.9 2.3 71.5 66.8 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.3 6.1 2.1 70.6 66.4 1.6 3.2 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------