***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 -0.7 0.3 1.6 3.8 87.9 84.7 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 -1.2 0.0 1.1 3.3 85.7 82.5 -4.2 -3.0 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 0.7 1.7 1.3 3.5 86.2 83.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -4.1 -3.2 -1.6 3.1 83.6 80.4 -7.1 -5.9 -4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 -1.6 -0.7 -0.4 3.6 86.5 83.3 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 -2.6 -1.6 -2.7 3.4 86.8 82.9 -5.1 -4.1 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 -1.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 86.8 83.7 -4.1 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 -6.0 -5.3 -2.5 3.3 84.5 80.9 -8.1 -7.2 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 -0.7 0.2 -0.4 3.4 85.4 82.2 -3.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 -1.6 -0.8 -1.9 3.2 84.1 80.8 -4.1 -3.1 -2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 -1.6 -0.5 -1.0 3.5 85.8 82.5 -4.4 -3.3 -2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 -2.4 -1.4 -1.6 3.5 85.8 82.4 -5.1 -4.0 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 -1.8 -0.6 -1.8 3.6 86.4 82.9 -4.8 -3.6 -2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 -0.8 -0.2 -1.3 2.8 80.0 76.6 -3.2 -2.2 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 -1.1 -0.1 -0.4 3.0 84.7 81.7 -4.2 -3.0 -1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 -1.0 -0.1 -1.6 3.5 86.2 82.6 -3.5 -2.5 -1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 -1.4 -0.5 1.0 3.2 84.2 81.0 -4.4 -3.2 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 -3.5 -2.7 -2.7 3.0 82.6 79.0 -6.2 -5.1 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 -1.2 -0.2 0.9 3.2 84.9 81.7 -4.0 -2.8 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 -6.0 -5.0 -3.6 3.1 84.2 80.5 -9.2 -7.9 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 -1.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 86.3 83.2 -3.8 -2.7 -1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 -1.4 -0.7 0.7 3.0 82.6 79.6 -4.3 -3.2 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 -1.3 -0.6 0.5 3.1 83.4 80.3 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 -1.5 -0.9 -1.2 2.9 81.9 78.6 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 -1.0 0.0 0.7 3.8 87.8 84.7 -3.6 -2.6 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 -1.8 -0.7 -1.8 3.7 87.2 84.1 -4.6 -3.5 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 -0.4 0.9 1.4 3.9 88.2 85.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 -2.3 -1.5 -1.5 3.0 83.2 79.9 -5.2 -4.0 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 -3.6 -2.8 -3.1 3.1 83.8 80.2 -5.9 -5.0 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 -0.8 0.4 1.2 3.5 86.5 83.3 -3.9 -2.7 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------