***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.2 5.0 8.6 81.2 54.1 41.4 2.1 4.3 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.8 7.2 79.4 54.4 42.1 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.9 8.5 79.7 53.4 40.8 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.5 10.4 90.4 58.9 42.9 5.0 8.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.7 7.0 10.7 87.3 56.3 42.1 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.3 10.3 85.2 56.1 43.2 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.3 7.1 81.8 55.3 42.2 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.3 11.7 11.4 86.8 55.8 43.0 5.5 9.8 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.8 11.3 87.2 55.8 42.4 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.6 11.9 87.6 55.7 43.0 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.2 10.3 86.6 55.8 42.4 2.9 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.5 10.0 84.3 55.0 42.1 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.2 10.5 82.5 54.4 41.5 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.0 11.3 80.5 52.8 41.9 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.5 10.2 92.2 61.3 44.0 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.0 4.8 10.1 85.4 55.6 41.7 1.9 3.9 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.3 7.3 81.3 55.1 41.4 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.0 13.1 91.7 57.5 44.3 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.2 5.0 7.4 77.4 53.1 41.7 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.6 15.9 93.4 58.9 44.4 3.0 5.1 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.8 10.4 87.0 55.9 41.7 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.5 7.8 79.6 54.5 42.2 2.3 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.5 5.5 8.2 76.5 51.6 40.9 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.3 11.2 85.9 55.2 42.6 2.7 5.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.5 10.4 87.3 56.5 42.1 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.8 3.9 10.0 83.4 56.2 43.3 1.9 3.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.6 9.2 83.1 54.7 41.9 2.0 3.9 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.5 9.8 89.2 58.9 42.9 2.3 4.7 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.3 14.4 94.0 58.7 45.0 4.4 8.4 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.0 4.7 7.5 79.8 54.2 42.1 1.8 4.0 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------