***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 5.9 6.2 6.1 3.0 74.3 71.5 2.6 4.1 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 5.6 5.9 6.2 3.1 74.7 72.2 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 6.7 7.1 6.7 3.1 74.5 71.5 2.9 4.6 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 2.4 3.1 3.8 3.1 75.7 72.2 -2.1 -0.1 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 6.4 7.0 4.8 3.0 75.1 71.6 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.5 4.0 2.6 72.6 69.4 3.0 4.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.6 6.1 3.1 75.0 72.5 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 1.7 2.2 4.6 2.8 74.6 70.7 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 7.6 8.2 5.7 3.0 74.6 71.0 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.2 5.2 3.0 74.6 70.8 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 6.8 7.4 4.8 2.9 74.8 71.3 2.8 4.7 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 7.5 7.9 4.7 2.7 74.0 70.6 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 6.6 6.8 4.1 2.5 72.8 69.7 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 7.5 8.0 6.4 3.1 73.8 70.5 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 6.8 7.4 4.5 3.1 75.6 72.0 2.1 4.2 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.6 4.4 2.8 73.9 70.7 3.4 5.1 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 5.1 5.4 6.1 3.0 74.1 71.6 1.4 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.8 5.1 5.4 2.9 73.9 70.1 1.6 3.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 5.9 6.2 6.4 3.1 74.5 71.9 1.9 3.6 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 4.3 4.5 3.5 2.6 73.6 69.4 0.5 2.2 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.8 7.4 6.2 3.0 74.4 71.1 3.0 4.8 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 5.9 6.3 6.2 2.9 73.7 71.1 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 5.8 6.2 6.8 3.1 74.4 71.5 2.0 3.7 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 7.7 8.3 6.2 3.0 74.1 70.7 3.4 5.4 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.4 5.8 4.7 3.0 74.5 71.5 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.6 6.9 4.0 2.5 73.9 70.4 3.1 4.6 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.4 5.6 2.9 74.0 71.2 2.4 4.0 5.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 7.4 8.1 4.2 3.1 75.1 71.6 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.7 5.1 4.8 2.8 73.4 69.8 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 5.5 5.8 6.2 3.1 74.8 72.2 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------