***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 6.3 7.3 6.9 2.9 77.4 73.5 1.4 3.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 5.9 6.7 7.1 3.0 77.4 73.8 1.4 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 7.8 8.8 7.5 2.9 77.1 72.8 2.5 4.8 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 3.3 4.7 4.5 3.0 77.8 72.3 -2.0 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 7.2 8.1 5.5 2.8 77.2 71.6 2.2 4.4 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.2 4.3 2.4 74.8 68.7 2.0 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 5.5 6.4 6.9 2.9 77.2 73.7 1.0 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 0.9 1.4 5.0 2.4 75.9 69.7 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 8.3 9.2 6.4 2.7 77.3 72.0 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 6.8 7.4 5.7 2.6 75.8 70.0 2.3 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 7.5 8.3 5.8 2.7 77.1 71.5 2.3 4.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 8.2 9.0 5.3 2.5 77.1 71.0 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 7.3 7.7 5.2 2.4 74.4 68.7 2.2 4.4 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 8.6 9.2 7.3 2.8 75.9 71.0 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 6.7 8.0 5.8 3.2 79.6 75.1 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 7.9 8.7 5.2 2.6 76.4 70.6 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 5.2 6.2 6.9 2.9 77.5 73.8 1.0 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 4.7 5.0 5.5 2.4 74.1 68.9 1.0 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.7 7.3 3.1 77.6 73.9 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 4.2 4.4 3.8 2.0 71.5 66.4 -0.6 1.6 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.6 7.0 2.8 76.8 71.9 2.7 4.9 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 6.3 7.3 7.1 2.9 77.3 73.6 1.6 3.7 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 6.2 7.3 7.5 3.1 78.0 73.8 1.6 3.6 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 8.9 9.5 6.9 2.7 75.5 70.7 3.4 5.8 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.8 5.8 2.8 77.0 71.9 1.5 3.5 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 6.1 6.4 4.3 2.2 74.8 68.6 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 7.3 8.4 6.4 2.8 76.9 72.4 2.4 4.7 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 7.3 8.5 5.1 3.0 77.1 71.8 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 5.0 5.3 4.9 2.2 73.4 68.5 0.0 2.2 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 5.8 6.8 7.1 3.0 77.4 73.8 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------