***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 1.9 2.7 -1.4 33.0 34.2 1.9 3.9 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 3.9 3.2 4.0 -0.2 47.1 47.7 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.0 3.0 3.2 -1.6 32.8 33.8 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.8 -0.7 0.6 -0.9 39.4 40.0 -1.4 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 5.2 3.3 1.9 -1.1 38.1 38.7 2.7 4.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 1.0 1.4 -0.5 -2.3 25.0 26.2 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 3.7 2.9 3.8 -0.2 47.1 47.6 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.8 -2.8 0.9 -1.8 30.1 31.5 -2.5 -1.0 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 5.9 4.9 3.4 -0.5 44.7 45.1 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 2.9 1.8 -1.6 34.0 35.0 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 5.4 3.6 2.4 -1.0 38.6 39.3 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.6 3.4 1.5 -1.3 35.3 36.4 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.4 2.3 1.2 -2.0 29.4 30.5 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 6.0 4.7 4.1 -0.7 42.6 43.1 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 3.5 4.3 3.8 1.0 61.7 61.2 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.5 1.1 -1.6 32.9 33.8 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 3.3 3.7 4.6 0.5 56.6 56.4 1.1 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.2 1.3 1.4 -1.9 30.8 31.9 1.5 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 4.5 3.4 4.0 -0.5 44.8 45.4 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 -2.4 -1.9 -0.7 -2.7 22.4 24.1 -0.6 1.3 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 5.5 4.0 3.8 -0.8 41.3 41.7 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 4.0 4.4 5.0 0.6 57.2 57.0 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 4.3 3.0 3.8 -0.7 42.1 42.7 1.9 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 6.2 4.0 3.5 -1.1 37.9 38.6 3.3 5.6 7.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.2 2.2 2.1 -1.3 34.9 35.6 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.6 -0.1 -2.2 25.8 27.4 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.0 2.2 2.1 -1.8 29.5 30.6 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.0 2.0 -0.3 47.5 47.6 2.3 4.3 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -1.1 -0.9 0.7 -2.1 28.7 30.1 -0.4 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.2 2.1 3.2 -1.1 37.3 38.4 1.6 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------