***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 -4.1 -1.3 -2.6 0.4 54.0 53.2 -3.7 -1.7 0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -5.7 -2.1 -2.3 0.7 56.9 55.6 -5.3 -3.0 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 -3.3 -0.3 -2.7 0.4 53.7 53.5 -2.8 -0.7 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -8.1 -5.8 -6.2 -0.3 47.3 48.8 -7.7 -5.5 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 -5.8 -3.5 -5.6 -0.1 48.9 50.0 -5.4 -3.4 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -3.8 -4.4 -7.4 0.2 52.1 52.0 -6.7 -4.7 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -1.8 -2.1 0.8 57.3 55.7 -5.0 -2.7 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -8.9 -6.7 -6.8 0.3 52.8 52.4 -8.6 -7.0 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -5.5 -2.4 -4.8 0.1 51.4 51.8 -4.8 -2.6 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -5.8 -3.1 -6.2 0.2 52.0 51.9 -5.4 -3.4 -1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -6.1 -3.6 -6.3 0.0 50.3 50.9 -5.8 -3.7 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 -3.8 -4.3 -6.6 0.3 52.8 52.6 -6.7 -4.7 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -7.0 -4.0 -6.8 0.3 52.6 52.1 -6.6 -4.3 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -1.7 -4.6 0.5 54.5 53.7 -4.2 -2.2 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 -5.6 -3.6 -5.0 -0.2 47.8 49.9 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 -2.1 -2.9 -6.8 0.0 50.2 50.7 -4.8 -2.9 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -2.3 -2.1 -1.9 0.9 58.8 56.9 -5.4 -3.2 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -8.0 -5.2 -6.8 0.3 52.3 51.7 -7.6 -5.5 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -5.3 -2.0 -2.5 0.6 55.7 54.9 -4.9 -2.7 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -11.7 -7.6 -7.3 0.6 55.3 53.6 -11.0 -8.4 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -5.4 -2.4 -3.5 0.2 52.4 52.5 -4.8 -2.7 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 0.8 57.6 56.2 -5.4 -3.3 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -5.6 -2.4 -2.9 0.4 54.2 53.9 -4.9 -2.9 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 -5.2 -2.7 -5.2 0.2 52.3 52.1 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.6 -4.2 0.1 51.2 51.2 -4.9 -2.8 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -6.3 -3.6 -6.9 0.3 52.8 52.5 -6.0 -3.9 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -1.9 -3.0 0.4 53.7 52.7 -5.0 -2.4 -0.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -6.9 -4.6 -6.1 -0.2 48.0 49.7 -6.4 -4.4 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -7.6 -4.4 -6.9 0.4 53.6 52.5 -7.0 -4.8 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -5.4 -1.9 -2.4 0.6 55.6 54.6 -5.0 -2.6 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------