***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 8.2 15.9 16.0 147.9 77.5 64.8 3.4 6.5 11.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.6 12.0 13.6 130.8 73.0 59.9 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 14.1 20.3 16.9 160.6 80.2 68.2 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 15.4 21.2 17.6 161.9 80.7 67.1 5.1 8.8 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 14.4 20.8 18.5 171.8 83.1 70.8 4.9 8.4 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.3 15.2 16.1 153.2 78.8 70.3 4.6 7.5 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.8 12.4 13.2 126.3 71.7 58.7 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 19.6 26.9 19.7 177.9 84.2 73.9 7.8 11.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 12.1 17.0 19.3 170.2 83.0 71.8 4.0 6.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 14.4 20.6 20.5 177.7 84.4 74.0 4.9 8.1 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 14.1 19.6 17.6 176.3 83.9 71.8 5.4 8.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 15.2 21.4 16.9 173.0 83.5 72.3 4.9 8.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 15.2 19.9 16.3 159.6 80.5 71.7 5.0 8.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 18.2 26.4 21.5 177.6 83.5 73.0 6.3 10.5 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.8 17.3 16.1 150.5 77.7 62.8 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.2 18.6 16.4 167.3 82.0 70.8 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.1 10.6 12.1 117.9 69.3 56.7 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.6 20.4 23.2 181.6 85.6 75.4 4.8 7.9 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.3 13.8 14.8 142.4 75.9 62.8 3.9 6.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 14.5 20.1 26.0 174.6 83.6 74.5 5.1 8.4 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 13.0 17.6 17.9 163.2 81.1 70.0 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.1 11.1 13.5 125.9 71.5 59.0 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 7.0 13.7 17.1 160.6 80.1 67.2 3.4 5.9 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.6 24.8 21.1 180.6 84.7 74.2 5.2 9.1 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 14.3 19.1 18.3 150.3 77.9 67.1 4.3 8.0 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 13.0 17.0 16.0 157.7 79.8 71.0 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 8.9 16.8 17.0 142.8 76.1 65.0 3.6 7.1 12.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 12.4 16.8 16.4 158.8 79.7 66.0 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 21.3 31.7 24.8 181.3 85.1 75.3 7.2 12.0 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.7 13.3 14.4 137.6 74.7 61.6 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------