***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 7.0 7.6 5.5 2.9 81.5 80.4 2.2 4.0 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 6.7 7.0 5.0 2.7 78.6 77.4 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 8.3 8.8 5.5 2.6 77.7 76.4 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.7 4.7 4.4 92.5 91.2 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.0 9.7 5.3 3.8 88.1 86.9 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.1 8.8 5.3 4.4 88.7 87.8 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 6.4 6.8 4.9 2.8 80.1 79.0 1.7 3.4 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.2 3.3 6.4 5.1 92.6 91.6 -2.5 -1.2 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 9.0 11.0 6.2 3.9 89.0 87.5 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.3 6.3 4.5 90.0 88.7 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.6 10.8 5.8 4.2 89.8 88.8 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 8.2 10.4 6.0 4.5 90.6 89.5 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.2 9.8 6.0 4.1 87.6 86.6 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 9.0 10.1 6.2 3.5 82.1 80.3 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 5.6 8.9 6.5 5.1 96.9 95.6 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 8.7 10.5 5.4 4.0 88.5 87.6 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 5.9 6.5 4.8 2.9 80.7 79.4 1.6 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 5.8 7.5 6.4 4.7 89.6 88.5 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 7.4 7.7 5.0 2.6 77.3 76.1 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 4.9 8.0 6.1 5.6 93.4 92.6 -0.2 1.7 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 8.3 9.4 5.9 3.2 83.5 82.0 3.2 5.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 6.5 6.9 4.9 2.6 78.3 76.9 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 6.8 7.2 5.2 2.6 77.0 75.5 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 9.0 10.3 6.2 3.6 83.1 81.5 3.4 5.6 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 6.6 8.0 5.5 3.7 88.0 86.7 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 6.8 8.8 5.7 4.5 90.6 89.7 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 8.3 9.4 5.5 3.2 83.7 82.5 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 6.8 9.1 5.7 4.7 93.2 91.9 2.9 4.3 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.8 7.2 6.2 5.2 91.5 90.6 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 6.7 7.0 5.1 2.7 78.3 77.2 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------