***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.6 3.7 2.6 -0.3 45.8 47.5 2.7 4.1 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.0 3.3 2.6 -0.3 46.2 48.1 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.6 4.5 2.8 -0.5 43.3 45.4 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 37.6 40.3 -0.7 0.6 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.0 1.0 -0.6 41.4 43.6 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.0 1.0 -0.2 47.8 48.9 2.9 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.0 2.6 -0.2 46.9 48.9 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.4 -0.8 1.4 -0.2 46.9 48.1 -1.5 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.0 4.8 2.0 -0.6 42.0 44.0 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.0 4.1 1.7 -0.4 44.4 46.0 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.2 1.3 -0.6 42.2 44.3 3.4 4.8 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.5 4.7 1.4 -0.3 45.6 47.1 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.1 4.5 1.5 -0.1 48.3 49.3 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.0 2.8 -0.4 44.4 46.2 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 2.8 0.6 -0.9 38.1 40.9 2.3 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.7 4.8 1.0 -0.4 44.8 46.4 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 3.5 2.8 2.6 -0.3 45.3 47.2 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.1 2.7 2.1 -0.1 48.7 49.8 1.6 2.7 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.6 3.8 2.7 -0.3 45.7 47.6 2.7 4.1 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.4 56.2 56.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.4 2.5 -0.6 42.0 44.1 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.2 3.4 2.8 -0.3 45.2 46.9 2.4 3.8 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.3 3.5 2.9 -0.4 44.9 46.8 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.2 2.7 -0.4 44.6 46.4 4.2 5.7 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.4 1.5 -0.3 45.1 46.6 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.6 4.3 1.4 0.1 51.9 52.3 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.5 2.3 -0.2 46.8 48.1 3.3 4.8 6.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.5 0.1 -1.0 36.8 39.9 3.2 4.7 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.5 2.4 1.9 0.2 53.0 53.4 0.9 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.0 3.3 2.6 -0.3 46.5 48.4 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------