***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 0.9 -0.3 0.2 -3.7 12.4 17.8 2.4 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 0.6 -0.6 -0.2 -4.2 10.2 14.6 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 2.2 1.0 0.4 -4.0 12.6 17.1 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -2.5 -2.8 -1.4 -3.1 19.4 22.4 -1.1 0.7 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 2.1 1.9 0.3 -2.5 22.3 25.5 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.3 0.7 -1.2 36.9 39.0 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 0.3 -0.7 -0.1 -3.8 11.6 16.4 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.6 -2.4 0.6 -1.7 31.5 33.3 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 2.3 1.9 0.8 -2.9 19.4 22.7 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.5 2.5 0.7 -2.3 26.3 28.5 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.6 2.5 0.9 -2.4 24.0 27.3 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.1 0.8 -1.8 29.5 32.1 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.0 1.5 -1.8 30.6 34.2 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 2.5 1.7 0.8 -3.7 16.6 19.2 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.2 0.6 -0.2 -3.4 17.2 20.7 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.2 3.2 0.7 -2.0 27.5 30.8 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 0.7 -0.1 0.3 -3.4 14.2 18.0 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 0.8 1.0 0.7 -2.0 29.5 31.2 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 1.0 -0.7 -0.4 -4.5 9.2 13.4 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 2.7 1.2 0.7 -0.8 40.9 41.9 0.3 2.2 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 2.1 1.5 1.2 -3.1 17.1 21.2 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 91 9 0 100 0.9 -0.1 0.3 -3.9 12.0 15.4 2.7 4.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -4.6 9.3 13.0 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 2.7 2.3 1.0 -3.2 19.4 22.3 4.0 5.9 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 1.7 1.2 0.5 -2.8 19.4 23.5 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.2 3.3 1.0 -1.1 36.9 39.2 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 2.2 1.4 0.5 -3.1 16.5 21.6 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 1.6 1.2 -0.6 -3.1 20.1 23.1 2.9 4.7 6.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.1 0.5 0.6 -1.6 33.1 34.6 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 0.6 -0.8 -0.3 -4.3 9.8 14.5 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------