***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 44.4 47.0 110.3 64.2 56.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 36.1 43.3 48.0 117.8 68.6 60.9 24.0 32.2 41.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 46.9 51.8 47.7 111.4 64.9 57.4 33.1 42.2 52.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 45.4 47.9 49.4 105.6 60.9 53.9 31.1 40.9 51.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 49.0 50.2 49.6 104.3 59.8 53.0 35.9 44.7 54.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 42.6 42.8 48.1 99.3 56.7 51.3 29.9 38.8 48.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 46.6 46.2 47.5 117.6 68.5 60.6 24.7 33.7 44.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 59.5 62.9 54.8 107.8 62.5 55.4 44.8 54.9 65.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 36.7 37.8 50.5 105.3 60.4 53.6 26.0 32.9 40.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 43.9 46.0 53.9 106.9 61.8 54.9 32.4 40.1 48.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 44.2 44.7 47.4 102.1 58.2 52.2 33.2 40.9 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 44.0 45.9 48.3 104.6 60.2 53.4 30.8 39.8 49.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 47.2 47.7 48.6 102.0 58.2 52.1 33.2 42.7 52.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 54.9 61.4 56.9 113.4 66.5 59.6 41.3 50.9 61.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 42.4 48.5 50.2 110.4 64.2 57.2 24.3 36.2 50.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 42.0 40.8 45.5 98.7 55.7 50.1 28.8 37.5 47.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 45.8 46.8 48.4 122.5 70.9 62.7 24.6 33.3 43.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 38.9 42.5 59.5 110.3 64.4 57.2 28.6 35.6 43.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 37.9 44.9 48.5 116.6 68.1 60.4 25.8 34.2 43.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 49.8 58.1 73.7 115.6 67.8 59.5 35.5 45.6 56.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 42.6 44.2 48.2 105.8 61.0 53.6 29.6 38.1 47.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 43.0 45.0 50.9 122.2 70.9 62.9 24.4 32.5 41.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 34.9 40.2 49.8 114.2 66.8 59.4 24.6 31.8 39.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 47.1 51.2 54.4 111.0 64.9 57.9 36.0 43.7 52.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 46.0 49.7 51.9 108.1 62.7 54.8 29.1 40.1 52.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 40.8 43.4 50.2 106.4 61.6 55.5 27.0 36.1 46.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 41.8 46.8 50.4 110.1 64.1 56.4 25.9 36.4 48.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 40.5 42.3 47.7 104.1 59.9 53.7 26.8 36.0 46.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 64.7 71.9 65.6 113.4 66.6 59.0 50.3 60.5 71.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 36.2 43.3 47.4 115.7 67.5 59.9 23.5 32.2 42.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------