***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.2 14.3 12.0 8.5 99.4 99.0 2.3 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.2 12.9 11.3 7.7 98.5 97.5 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.2 16.1 12.4 8.4 99.0 98.4 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 3.9 10.5 9.3 8.2 98.8 97.8 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.4 15.3 10.9 8.4 99.2 99.0 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.8 14.6 10.1 8.7 99.2 99.0 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 6.8 13.0 11.3 7.9 99.0 98.2 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.7 5.9 9.6 7.7 98.0 97.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 9.2 15.6 10.9 7.5 98.5 98.2 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 8.2 14.1 10.8 8.2 98.6 98.3 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.6 15.3 11.3 8.4 99.0 98.8 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 8.9 14.9 9.8 7.6 98.3 98.1 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.7 15.0 10.9 8.0 98.6 98.4 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 10.0 17.2 12.7 8.8 98.6 98.1 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 6.5 9.2 8.3 5.4 93.6 92.2 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 9.2 15.8 10.5 8.2 98.9 98.7 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 6.5 12.4 11.1 7.8 98.9 98.1 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 5.9 11.8 10.9 8.7 98.8 98.6 1.0 2.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 8.2 14.2 11.3 7.6 98.1 97.0 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.4 11.2 9.3 8.2 98.6 98.4 0.5 2.3 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.9 15.9 12.1 8.1 99.1 98.8 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.4 13.2 11.4 7.7 98.5 97.2 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.8 13.1 11.3 7.4 97.7 96.6 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 9.1 15.2 12.1 8.3 98.5 98.1 3.9 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.1 14.1 11.7 8.8 99.6 99.4 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.3 11.8 8.6 6.9 97.7 97.4 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.7 16.8 12.0 8.7 99.6 99.3 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 8.3 12.8 9.0 7.0 95.9 94.5 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 5.7 11.7 10.0 8.3 98.6 98.3 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.2 13.2 11.5 7.9 98.8 98.0 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------