***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 0.7 2.5 3.3 4.7 88.5 85.5 -4.1 -2.3 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 0.6 2.0 2.7 4.2 86.3 83.7 -4.5 -2.6 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 2.0 3.7 3.2 4.5 88.1 85.3 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 -3.3 -1.4 0.6 4.5 89.1 85.9 -7.3 -5.8 -4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 0.2 2.3 1.7 4.9 89.2 86.3 -4.4 -2.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 -0.8 1.3 -0.5 4.8 89.6 87.3 -5.6 -3.8 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 0.6 2.1 2.8 4.3 86.3 83.7 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -4.9 -3.2 -0.1 4.8 88.3 86.3 -9.1 -7.5 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 1.0 3.2 1.7 4.8 89.6 86.9 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 0.5 2.5 0.4 4.8 88.8 86.6 -4.4 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 0.4 3.0 1.3 5.1 89.9 87.5 -4.9 -2.9 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 -0.2 1.9 0.7 5.1 88.9 86.7 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 0.4 2.6 0.5 5.0 89.1 87.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 0.9 2.2 1.4 4.6 86.8 85.1 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 -0.7 1.5 1.7 4.4 90.4 86.9 -5.0 -3.3 -1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 0.8 2.8 0.7 5.0 89.7 87.4 -3.7 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 0.0 1.1 2.6 3.9 84.5 82.0 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 -1.7 -0.1 -0.1 4.7 87.3 85.5 -6.4 -4.6 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 0.7 2.2 2.7 4.3 86.8 84.3 -4.2 -2.4 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 -3.2 -1.3 -1.0 4.7 85.9 84.1 -9.6 -7.2 -4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 0.9 2.9 2.7 4.6 88.6 85.6 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 -0.1 1.1 2.6 3.9 84.5 82.3 -4.8 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 0.2 1.9 2.6 4.4 87.9 85.6 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 0.2 1.8 1.3 4.6 87.5 85.4 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 0.0 1.7 2.5 4.7 88.8 85.6 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 -0.2 1.9 0.5 5.0 89.4 87.3 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 1.6 3.7 3.1 4.7 87.9 84.9 -3.8 -1.8 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 -1.3 0.4 0.8 4.5 88.8 85.9 -5.4 -3.9 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 -2.0 -0.5 -0.5 4.9 87.2 85.5 -6.5 -4.9 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 1.0 2.7 3.0 4.4 87.4 84.8 -4.2 -2.3 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------