***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 6.9 4.7 2.6 78.7 73.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 5.7 6.7 4.6 2.7 78.3 74.0 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 7.8 9.0 4.9 2.6 78.1 73.1 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 3.6 4.8 2.9 2.7 79.6 75.1 -1.7 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 7.4 8.4 3.4 2.5 78.3 73.2 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 6.8 7.6 3.0 2.4 76.6 70.1 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 5.4 6.4 4.5 2.7 78.4 74.0 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 0.9 1.6 3.3 2.4 77.5 70.9 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 8.1 9.2 4.3 2.5 77.7 72.0 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 7.0 7.9 3.8 2.4 77.2 70.8 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 7.4 8.4 3.4 2.4 77.6 72.3 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 8.0 9.0 3.3 2.3 77.3 71.6 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 7.4 8.1 3.0 2.3 76.5 70.7 2.6 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 8.4 9.4 4.7 2.5 76.5 70.8 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 6.7 7.9 3.3 2.8 80.8 76.3 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 8.0 9.0 3.1 2.4 77.1 71.8 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.9 4.5 2.6 77.1 73.1 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.9 5.5 3.8 2.3 76.0 69.4 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.7 4.8 2.7 78.0 73.7 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 4.1 5.0 2.5 2.3 76.3 69.0 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 7.7 8.8 4.6 2.5 77.9 72.6 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.0 6.9 4.6 2.6 76.3 72.4 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 6.4 7.3 4.9 2.6 77.5 72.9 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 8.7 9.7 4.6 2.4 76.7 70.7 3.4 5.7 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 6.0 6.9 3.4 2.6 79.3 74.2 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 6.4 7.0 2.9 2.2 75.9 70.3 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 7.6 8.8 4.1 2.6 78.7 73.6 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 8.1 9.3 3.2 2.7 79.5 74.9 2.7 5.0 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.5 5.3 3.3 2.3 75.8 69.0 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 5.8 6.9 4.7 2.7 78.6 74.1 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------