***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.3 -0.8 2.4 73.9 70.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 -0.9 -0.5 -1.0 2.4 73.9 71.1 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 1.0 1.4 -1.1 2.3 74.0 71.2 -2.6 -1.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -3.1 -2.6 -3.4 2.9 77.8 75.4 -7.7 -5.8 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 -0.9 -0.7 -3.0 2.6 75.7 73.2 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 -1.5 -1.5 -4.3 2.5 73.7 71.7 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.4 -1.0 2.3 73.5 70.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 -5.4 -5.2 -3.7 2.6 73.9 71.4 -9.2 -7.5 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 -0.1 0.1 -2.1 2.5 74.4 71.5 -4.2 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 -1.2 -1.0 -3.1 2.5 73.8 71.0 -4.6 -3.1 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 -1.0 -0.9 -3.2 2.5 74.2 72.3 -4.9 -3.3 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 -1.5 -1.4 -3.4 2.7 73.9 72.0 -5.7 -3.9 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 -0.9 -0.8 -3.8 2.5 73.0 71.0 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 -0.2 0.2 -2.1 2.7 75.4 72.7 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 -0.4 0.0 -2.8 2.9 77.2 75.2 -4.5 -2.9 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 -0.3 -0.2 -3.7 2.5 74.0 72.3 -4.0 -2.4 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 2.2 72.7 70.2 -4.7 -3.1 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 -3.0 -2.7 -3.5 2.6 74.0 70.8 -7.0 -5.3 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 2.3 73.9 71.2 -4.7 -3.0 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -4.9 -4.6 -4.7 2.3 72.7 68.9 -9.9 -7.7 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 2.4 74.2 71.2 -4.7 -2.8 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 2.2 72.6 70.0 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 -1.2 -0.8 -1.4 2.4 74.3 71.7 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 -1.1 -0.8 -2.3 2.5 74.6 71.9 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 -0.6 -0.1 -2.5 2.7 77.2 74.5 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 -1.4 -1.2 -3.4 2.5 73.5 71.4 -5.2 -3.5 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 0.1 0.4 -1.6 2.5 74.9 72.1 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 -1.5 -1.1 -3.2 2.9 77.2 75.2 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 -2.9 -2.6 -4.0 2.5 73.7 70.4 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.0 2.4 74.0 71.1 -4.5 -2.7 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------