***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.1 10.6 9.7 94.2 61.3 43.9 4.5 7.8 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.4 8.4 94.6 61.6 42.6 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.1 12.1 9.9 94.7 61.8 45.0 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.3 12.7 11.3 95.6 62.9 48.4 5.1 8.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.3 11.1 10.9 91.2 60.8 47.8 5.4 8.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.0 11.0 99.9 63.8 51.7 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.5 8.4 96.2 62.0 43.0 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.3 16.5 12.6 104.6 65.3 51.3 7.1 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.1 11.6 91.7 60.9 47.5 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.6 12.5 98.6 63.2 49.9 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.0 10.8 10.7 94.7 61.9 49.5 4.9 8.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.7 13.0 10.9 101.5 64.4 51.3 5.4 8.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.2 10.4 92.6 61.2 49.0 4.9 8.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.3 15.0 13.1 101.2 64.1 48.7 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.7 11.7 101.7 66.0 49.6 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.2 10.2 92.0 61.3 49.6 3.8 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.5 7.9 89.8 60.3 41.5 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.0 10.2 13.3 100.7 63.9 50.2 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.1 9.9 8.9 96.3 62.3 43.7 4.3 7.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.7 16.8 107.3 66.4 51.3 5.1 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.7 10.8 93.1 61.2 46.1 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.0 8.5 92.4 61.4 42.8 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.8 8.7 10.1 99.3 63.4 45.7 3.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.5 12.4 12.2 98.3 63.2 48.5 5.3 8.8 13.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.7 12.1 10.9 94.3 61.6 45.2 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.2 11.1 103.4 65.2 51.2 4.1 6.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.9 10.8 9.9 92.9 60.5 43.8 4.4 7.9 12.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.6 10.8 95.0 63.2 49.4 4.4 7.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 16.1 14.4 102.8 64.7 50.9 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.4 8.8 95.1 61.7 43.2 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------