***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -1.3 -0.5 1.0 60.5 58.3 -4.5 -2.5 -0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -1.8 -0.7 0.8 58.7 57.4 -4.5 -2.7 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 0.9 0.3 -0.5 1.0 61.3 59.2 -2.5 -0.8 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -3.5 -4.0 -2.9 1.3 64.2 62.7 -7.2 -5.5 -3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -1.6 -2.5 1.3 64.1 62.2 -4.7 -3.0 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -1.8 -2.2 -4.2 1.5 65.9 64.1 -5.4 -3.7 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -1.7 -0.6 0.8 58.7 57.3 -4.5 -2.7 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -5.5 -6.0 -3.8 1.5 65.0 62.8 -8.8 -7.3 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 -0.2 -0.8 -2.1 1.3 63.2 61.3 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 -1.1 -1.6 -3.3 1.3 63.5 61.5 -4.4 -2.8 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -1.6 -3.0 1.4 65.0 62.8 -4.7 -3.0 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 -1.7 -2.0 -3.3 1.6 66.3 64.1 -5.3 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -1.4 -3.8 1.5 65.6 63.4 -4.6 -2.9 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -1.4 -0.9 -2.3 1.1 61.0 59.0 -3.5 -1.9 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 -0.7 -1.2 -2.0 1.2 63.8 62.7 -4.3 -2.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 -0.4 -0.7 -3.5 1.5 65.3 63.3 -3.7 -2.2 -0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -2.2 -0.6 0.7 57.4 56.5 -4.5 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 -3.2 -3.8 -3.9 1.3 63.0 61.3 -6.6 -5.0 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -1.7 -0.8 0.9 59.4 57.7 -4.5 -2.7 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -4.9 -5.9 -4.9 1.3 62.6 60.8 -9.7 -7.5 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 -0.5 -1.2 -1.1 1.1 62.3 60.2 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -2.2 -0.8 0.8 58.3 56.9 -4.8 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -1.9 -0.9 0.9 60.5 58.2 -4.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -1.7 -2.6 1.2 62.4 60.5 -4.6 -2.9 -1.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -1.4 -1.5 1.1 62.4 60.2 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 -1.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.8 68.5 65.8 -4.9 -3.2 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -0.8 -0.7 1.0 60.9 58.8 -3.9 -2.0 -0.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -1.7 -2.3 -2.9 1.2 63.5 62.6 -5.2 -3.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 -3.1 -3.8 -4.2 1.2 62.3 60.8 -6.6 -5.0 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 -1.8 -1.5 -0.7 0.9 59.5 57.9 -4.3 -2.5 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------