***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 22.7 26.8 27.6 66.5 36.6 33.9 24.7 35.1 47.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.2 29.9 27.7 72.1 41.3 37.0 25.6 34.5 44.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 33.3 37.1 27.4 66.6 34.9 32.8 35.9 46.8 58.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 29.7 31.0 27.6 58.6 27.5 27.8 34.1 44.3 55.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 32.9 34.1 27.1 60.2 27.3 28.0 37.2 46.7 56.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 26.5 28.9 28.8 66.3 30.2 30.3 30.3 39.5 49.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 26.2 32.3 28.0 73.9 43.1 38.5 26.6 36.3 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 45.6 48.1 31.0 65.2 30.3 30.9 49.8 60.0 70.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 26.9 28.9 31.0 68.8 33.6 32.8 28.8 36.7 45.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 34.6 36.7 32.5 69.1 32.6 32.7 36.9 45.1 53.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 33.3 34.7 26.6 63.4 29.3 29.9 36.4 44.0 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 31.2 32.6 26.5 63.3 29.3 29.9 34.5 43.2 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 31.6 33.4 27.0 63.5 28.5 29.3 35.8 45.0 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 41.7 45.9 33.6 70.4 34.6 32.9 45.0 56.8 69.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 25.5 26.0 24.2 50.7 25.2 25.5 30.8 42.4 55.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 26.8 27.7 25.9 62.8 28.7 29.3 29.9 39.1 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 24.6 31.4 27.7 73.6 43.2 38.2 26.0 35.2 45.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 32.1 34.1 36.6 72.6 35.2 34.7 33.2 41.0 49.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 25.4 30.9 27.4 69.9 38.5 35.0 27.8 37.6 48.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 36.9 38.5 41.0 66.6 32.5 32.5 38.7 50.3 62.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 29.5 32.9 29.3 67.1 34.0 32.3 32.4 41.6 52.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 23.6 29.5 28.4 71.4 40.3 35.9 25.7 34.8 44.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 23.8 27.5 28.0 67.6 34.8 32.5 26.5 35.0 44.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 38.0 40.5 32.8 70.9 34.8 33.7 39.6 49.0 59.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 27.9 30.2 30.2 62.8 31.1 30.2 31.3 42.8 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 25.9 26.1 26.2 59.7 27.5 28.1 28.9 38.7 49.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 26.3 30.4 30.6 67.8 36.4 34.1 28.3 39.8 53.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 26.8 27.3 25.3 56.0 26.5 27.0 30.8 40.2 50.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 56.3 59.5 39.0 71.9 35.2 34.7 58.2 68.7 80.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 24.7 29.6 27.5 70.6 40.0 36.3 25.6 35.5 46.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------