***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.4 6.6 81.8 58.1 45.2 2.3 4.2 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.1 6.4 83.0 58.3 44.7 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.6 7.0 86.4 59.1 46.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.5 7.8 7.2 82.9 56.6 44.3 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.1 7.8 92.1 60.5 48.2 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.3 7.9 93.6 60.8 46.7 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.1 6.2 81.1 58.2 44.5 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.1 11.5 8.6 90.6 60.1 48.7 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.0 8.4 96.9 62.2 49.9 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.4 9.2 9.1 97.5 62.4 50.5 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.6 7.5 93.3 61.2 48.7 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.4 7.3 89.8 59.9 47.9 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.9 7.7 94.8 61.7 48.2 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.0 12.5 9.6 102.9 64.0 51.0 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.5 5.4 6.3 69.6 51.1 37.8 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.7 7.6 7.1 92.5 60.4 47.3 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.3 6.3 83.9 58.7 44.2 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.0 10.6 104.0 64.7 52.4 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.2 6.7 85.5 58.7 45.6 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.7 11.6 92.4 61.2 49.6 3.6 7.3 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.6 7.7 91.9 61.1 48.3 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.2 6.9 88.1 59.8 45.7 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.7 7.3 90.0 59.9 47.4 3.5 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.0 10.1 9.3 100.3 63.2 50.7 3.9 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.0 7.9 86.6 59.6 47.0 3.6 6.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.4 7.5 7.5 88.5 59.7 46.6 2.1 5.0 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.7 7.5 84.1 59.0 46.3 2.9 5.1 8.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.3 5.8 6.7 79.6 55.1 41.8 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.6 13.9 11.3 102.1 64.2 52.1 4.2 8.4 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.2 6.4 82.0 58.3 45.2 2.7 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------