***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 4.0 10.4 9.3 95.7 60.4 44.1 4.5 7.8 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.2 9.6 104.2 64.1 45.7 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.9 11.2 9.1 91.2 58.6 43.6 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.9 10.8 9.1 84.8 56.9 44.0 5.1 8.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.0 10.0 9.1 85.8 56.3 43.6 5.4 8.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.3 10.4 95.7 60.8 46.2 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.0 12.1 9.8 110.2 66.3 46.7 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 15.0 10.4 96.0 61.4 47.2 7.1 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.1 9.6 86.7 56.2 44.3 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.6 10.3 91.6 59.1 46.2 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.0 10.3 8.9 93.3 60.3 46.9 4.9 8.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.6 12.2 9.2 97.8 62.0 47.0 5.4 8.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.1 9.6 96.5 61.0 45.5 4.9 8.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.1 12.5 10.7 87.4 57.3 44.2 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.5 8.7 78.2 56.1 43.3 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.0 8.9 93.8 60.1 46.1 3.8 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.4 9.9 111.0 66.6 47.1 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.2 11.5 92.9 60.1 46.6 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.7 9.3 97.1 61.5 44.8 4.3 7.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.2 12.3 13.7 97.6 62.4 48.0 5.1 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.8 8.5 9.3 88.1 56.8 43.4 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.8 9.7 103.8 64.2 47.1 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.7 9.2 89.6 58.6 44.0 3.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.4 10.9 10.3 88.7 58.0 44.6 5.3 8.8 13.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 4.5 11.2 10.1 91.6 58.8 44.2 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.6 9.8 98.7 62.6 46.6 4.1 6.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.0 10.2 97.7 61.2 45.0 4.4 7.9 12.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.4 8.9 8.7 81.6 56.3 43.5 4.4 7.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 14.7 12.7 95.6 61.3 47.1 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.7 9.4 101.4 62.9 44.9 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------