***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 6.2 5.0 4.2 1.2 60.8 59.1 1.4 3.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.6 4.1 1.2 61.1 59.3 1.4 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.3 4.6 1.2 60.6 58.9 2.5 4.8 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.9 58.7 57.3 -2.0 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.5 2.6 0.9 58.3 57.1 2.2 4.4 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.8 2.2 0.7 56.6 55.5 2.0 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.4 4.2 1.3 61.7 59.9 1.0 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.6 -0.6 2.5 0.7 56.8 55.5 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.4 3.5 0.9 58.4 56.9 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.1 3.1 0.8 57.6 56.1 2.3 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.6 2.6 0.8 58.1 56.9 2.3 4.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.0 2.6 0.7 57.4 56.3 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.4 2.3 0.8 58.0 56.8 2.2 4.4 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.6 4.2 1.0 58.6 56.7 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.0 2.3 1.0 59.2 57.9 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.0 2.3 0.8 58.1 56.9 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.1 4.2 1.1 60.8 59.0 1.0 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.3 3.4 0.8 57.5 55.9 1.0 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.2 4.3 1.2 60.9 59.0 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.4 2.3 1.8 0.6 55.6 54.4 -0.6 1.6 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.1 4.0 1.0 59.0 57.6 2.7 4.9 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.9 4.2 1.1 60.3 58.4 1.6 3.7 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.9 4.7 1.2 60.4 58.4 1.6 3.6 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.0 4.1 1.0 58.7 57.0 3.4 5.8 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.6 2.7 1.0 59.6 57.9 1.5 3.5 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.6 2.2 0.7 57.4 56.4 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.1 3.8 1.1 60.7 58.8 2.4 4.7 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.5 1.8 0.8 57.9 56.7 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.0 2.8 0.6 56.0 54.9 0.0 2.2 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.6 4.2 1.2 61.4 59.6 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------