***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 48.7 47.9 110.9 64.7 56.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 39.9 43.2 43.8 107.4 62.3 54.2 25.5 35.2 46.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 53.8 58.5 48.0 110.3 64.3 57.1 37.7 48.3 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 62.2 62.5 54.0 119.3 69.7 61.7 38.7 48.8 59.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 59.7 57.9 52.2 113.2 66.5 59.5 41.1 49.2 57.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 52.0 50.9 52.2 116.3 68.4 62.2 30.1 39.1 49.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 43.3 47.4 43.7 107.9 62.6 54.0 27.6 38.2 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 70.0 75.0 55.1 112.6 66.1 58.9 56.5 65.7 75.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 41.8 45.9 53.0 111.9 65.8 58.8 30.4 37.9 45.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 39.2 54.3 54.7 110.3 64.6 58.0 39.6 47.2 55.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 55.3 54.1 50.5 115.0 67.9 61.1 39.0 46.0 53.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 57.2 55.8 50.5 115.2 68.0 61.1 36.2 45.0 54.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 59.3 56.2 50.6 112.5 66.1 60.3 36.8 46.0 56.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 46.1 68.0 53.4 104.6 59.9 54.7 47.9 60.1 73.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 61.1 68.1 56.9 131.9 74.5 65.9 31.2 43.6 58.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 54.3 53.0 50.2 115.4 68.1 61.4 33.6 42.3 51.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 40.6 44.3 42.1 107.8 62.6 53.5 26.0 35.9 46.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 47.4 49.8 58.6 108.0 62.7 56.1 36.2 43.6 51.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 44.7 48.5 44.8 107.7 62.5 55.0 28.8 39.4 51.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 57.6 62.3 69.4 110.8 64.5 55.8 42.7 52.7 63.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 47.6 52.4 50.9 111.3 65.1 58.3 33.7 42.8 52.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 40.7 43.5 43.3 106.0 61.3 53.5 27.0 36.2 47.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 42.6 45.5 47.1 107.4 62.2 55.8 29.2 38.1 47.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 57.0 59.9 53.6 107.8 62.5 56.4 43.2 52.5 62.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 49.4 55.1 53.0 111.0 64.7 57.3 33.0 43.8 56.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 45.3 51.7 51.2 113.2 66.2 59.7 30.6 40.4 51.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 47.2 52.2 50.4 109.4 63.6 56.0 29.5 41.2 54.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 54.4 56.4 53.8 123.9 71.5 63.7 32.4 41.9 52.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 78.7 81.4 62.0 107.0 61.8 54.9 62.0 73.0 84.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 42.0 46.3 45.0 108.4 63.0 55.2 26.6 36.8 48.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------