***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 -0.3 -0.1 -4.0 16.2 20.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 0.6 -1.4 -2.0 -5.8 7.5 12.5 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.4 1.7 0.3 -3.7 18.9 23.3 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 -3.5 -3.7 -2.3 -4.1 16.9 19.2 -1.6 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 2.3 2.2 -0.4 -3.1 24.0 26.8 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.4 3.6 0.5 -1.2 38.8 40.7 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 0.4 -1.8 -2.1 -5.8 7.2 12.2 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.2 -1.9 0.3 -1.8 34.1 36.2 -2.0 -0.4 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.2 3.0 0.7 -2.8 26.6 29.5 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 3.2 0.7 -2.0 32.7 35.1 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.1 3.2 0.4 -2.3 30.5 32.9 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.2 3.6 0.6 -1.7 34.8 36.7 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.8 4.2 1.5 -1.0 41.1 42.6 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.1 2.7 0.9 -2.7 27.2 31.1 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 1.3 1.0 -1.1 -4.2 15.5 17.8 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.6 4.0 0.6 -1.8 34.3 36.5 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 0.1 -2.0 -2.7 -6.1 5.9 10.3 2.0 3.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.7 2.1 0.9 -1.5 36.5 38.8 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 1.0 -0.7 -1.4 -5.2 10.1 15.2 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.1 1.1 -0.3 -1.4 36.9 38.9 0.7 2.5 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.8 2.5 0.7 -3.3 22.7 26.1 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 0.6 -1.4 -2.1 -5.8 7.2 11.6 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 1.3 0.5 -0.3 -4.2 15.3 20.4 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.4 3.4 1.3 -2.2 30.9 34.2 3.7 5.6 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 1.7 1.2 -0.8 -3.7 18.3 21.6 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.6 0.9 -1.2 38.0 39.7 3.1 4.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 2.3 1.4 -0.4 -3.9 17.0 21.3 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 1.4 1.3 -1.3 -3.7 19.7 21.9 3.1 4.9 6.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.4 0.8 0.7 -1.2 38.6 40.7 0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 0.9 -0.8 -1.4 -5.3 9.8 14.9 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------