***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 5.8 5.4 4.3 1.6 64.7 61.5 1.5 3.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 5.4 4.9 4.2 1.6 64.3 61.5 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.8 4.6 1.5 63.9 60.9 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.6 65.8 62.1 -1.7 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.3 2.8 1.3 63.0 59.9 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.4 2.3 1.0 59.6 57.1 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.6 4.2 1.5 64.3 61.5 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.2 2.4 0.9 59.4 57.2 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.9 3.5 1.2 61.4 58.6 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.7 2.9 1.0 59.5 57.0 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.3 2.9 1.2 62.2 59.4 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.6 2.8 1.1 61.0 58.6 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.0 2.3 1.1 60.6 58.2 2.6 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.8 3.9 1.1 60.0 57.5 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.6 5.9 2.9 1.7 66.5 62.8 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.8 2.5 1.2 61.8 59.1 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 4.9 4.3 4.2 1.4 63.4 60.8 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.5 3.6 2.9 0.8 57.7 55.7 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.7 4.4 1.6 64.1 61.3 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.3 1.5 0.7 57.1 55.6 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.6 4.1 1.3 62.7 59.7 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.1 4.2 1.4 63.2 60.5 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.4 4.7 1.5 63.4 60.5 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.1 3.8 1.1 60.2 57.6 3.4 5.7 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.2 5.0 3.0 1.5 64.4 61.0 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.5 2.4 1.2 63.0 60.1 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.6 3.8 1.5 63.9 60.8 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.8 7.0 2.3 1.5 64.8 61.4 2.7 5.0 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.8 2.4 0.7 56.7 55.1 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 5.3 5.0 4.2 1.6 64.7 61.9 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------