***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 6.7 7.5 73.9 52.2 43.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.2 6.7 6.8 73.6 52.7 41.7 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.4 8.5 7.4 74.4 51.7 42.7 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.8 11.0 8.0 79.3 55.1 44.5 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.7 10.9 8.5 87.2 57.4 46.9 5.5 9.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.4 8.6 100.0 62.8 50.9 4.4 7.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.9 6.7 73.1 51.9 41.5 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 15.0 9.0 91.2 59.4 47.5 7.8 12.1 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.0 9.0 89.2 58.2 48.1 4.5 7.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.8 9.4 91.7 59.2 48.5 4.9 8.4 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.4 10.7 8.1 94.0 59.8 47.7 5.4 8.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.4 8.0 94.4 60.5 47.4 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.9 8.3 100.0 62.3 49.8 5.2 8.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.7 11.9 9.3 84.9 56.3 45.7 5.4 9.9 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.3 8.1 7.4 73.3 54.6 41.4 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.2 7.9 96.0 60.9 48.5 4.5 7.6 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.8 6.4 73.3 52.8 41.4 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.4 10.2 90.0 58.4 48.2 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 7.8 7.1 75.5 53.5 42.2 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.7 10.6 11.2 81.6 55.9 46.2 5.3 9.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.6 8.3 81.4 54.7 45.7 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.3 6.9 7.0 74.6 53.4 41.7 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.3 7.1 7.8 79.3 54.6 43.5 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.9 9.1 84.9 56.0 46.1 4.4 8.2 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 8.9 8.6 75.9 53.2 44.6 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.6 8.2 98.2 62.3 49.3 4.4 7.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.3 7.4 8.2 74.6 52.4 43.8 3.4 6.8 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.1 9.2 7.6 82.2 56.9 44.7 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.7 10.7 87.7 57.5 47.7 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.2 6.9 73.2 51.9 41.7 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------