***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 6.0 7.0 64.3 44.5 35.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 3.8 8.4 7.4 73.9 50.1 36.8 4.8 8.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 5.7 9.5 7.3 67.2 46.3 35.9 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.4 7.2 6.5 55.2 38.8 32.0 6.0 9.9 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 5.2 8.2 7.1 60.6 42.1 35.1 6.1 10.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 3.6 5.4 5.9 53.2 37.6 30.5 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 3.4 7.4 7.2 71.8 48.6 37.1 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.7 10.9 7.8 62.0 43.2 35.7 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.1 5.3 7.8 64.6 44.3 36.9 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.4 6.9 8.3 65.3 45.1 37.4 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 4.3 7.1 6.8 61.3 42.8 35.0 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.9 7.1 6.4 59.0 41.4 34.0 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 3.9 6.0 6.1 55.8 39.6 32.9 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 6.0 9.9 8.4 65.0 43.9 34.1 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 3.1 4.8 5.8 49.7 38.7 29.0 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.7 5.5 6.1 57.4 40.5 33.2 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.6 7.7 7.3 73.8 50.5 37.7 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.4 9.4 68.0 46.7 38.9 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 3.4 8.1 7.6 73.9 50.1 36.1 4.4 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.1 7.8 10.2 64.1 43.8 36.9 5.3 9.5 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.4 7.1 7.4 64.8 44.0 36.3 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 3.8 8.1 7.3 71.3 48.2 35.4 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 3.1 6.9 7.8 72.1 48.7 34.9 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.0 8.4 8.5 67.5 46.8 37.2 5.5 9.2 14.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 5.4 7.9 7.4 60.2 41.7 35.2 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.5 4.8 5.7 51.3 37.8 30.9 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.5 7.2 7.6 63.7 43.9 36.4 4.7 8.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 4.0 5.6 5.9 52.1 38.7 30.5 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.0 11.9 9.7 66.0 44.9 37.8 8.3 13.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 3.7 7.6 7.2 70.7 48.1 36.0 4.4 8.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------