***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 8.1 9.5 17.2 152.9 78.1 72.7 2.2 4.1 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 10.2 12.5 16.6 155.6 78.6 73.0 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 11.1 12.5 15.6 139.4 74.9 69.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 18.3 36.4 40.6 318.9 94.5 92.7 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 12.5 14.8 20.5 155.8 78.7 74.1 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 10.7 15.3 22.8 199.2 86.1 83.4 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 12.5 16.3 18.4 174.6 82.1 76.7 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 17.9 20.2 21.4 153.0 76.7 72.2 8.3 12.0 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 9.2 10.2 16.8 131.5 73.1 68.3 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 8.3 12.4 16.9 118.6 68.9 64.2 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 11.2 13.6 20.7 158.7 79.4 74.6 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 13.7 17.3 23.1 180.4 83.0 78.9 3.9 6.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 12.6 15.2 23.6 168.6 81.3 77.8 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 11.3 12.5 13.2 91.0 59.9 54.8 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.4 57.8 50.6 447.5 98.1 97.0 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 13.7 17.7 23.3 183.2 83.7 80.1 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 12.2 15.2 17.5 162.0 79.8 74.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 8.1 8.9 13.2 90.5 59.4 55.3 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 11.4 13.2 15.2 140.2 75.3 69.4 3.4 6.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 9.2 11.4 18.0 109.0 64.7 60.9 5.4 8.2 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 11.3 12.7 17.1 140.3 75.3 70.3 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 11.9 13.4 15.5 133.7 73.7 67.2 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 8.1 12.8 13.9 122.9 70.9 65.3 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 10.1 12.0 12.9 96.8 62.2 57.3 4.7 8.4 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 10.4 13.2 22.7 174.7 82.1 77.6 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 15.2 24.3 29.5 239.3 90.6 88.2 3.9 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 11.0 13.6 19.1 161.8 79.8 74.9 2.4 4.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 13.3 27.8 40.3 348.9 94.7 93.2 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 13.1 14.0 13.5 88.7 58.4 54.5 6.9 11.3 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 10.9 13.4 16.9 159.5 79.4 73.6 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------