***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 2.1 4.9 4.2 4.2 93.1 91.4 -2.8 -1.0 0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 1.8 4.6 3.8 4.1 93.1 91.6 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 3.2 5.3 3.8 3.7 91.1 89.2 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 -2.1 -1.3 0.2 2.8 81.1 79.4 -6.9 -5.0 -3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 1.2 3.1 2.2 3.7 88.7 86.9 -3.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 0.3 3.1 0.8 4.7 93.5 92.3 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 1.8 4.8 4.0 4.3 93.7 92.1 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -3.4 -0.5 1.6 5.2 93.9 93.0 -8.0 -6.3 -4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 2.0 4.8 2.5 3.8 92.7 90.8 -2.6 -0.9 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 1.2 3.7 1.6 4.5 93.2 91.9 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 1.2 3.9 2.3 4.1 92.4 90.8 -3.4 -1.7 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 0.4 3.3 2.1 4.8 93.9 92.7 -4.1 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 1.1 4.0 1.7 4.4 93.3 92.1 -3.8 -2.0 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 1.9 4.0 2.4 3.7 91.8 89.8 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 1.0 2.5 2.4 3.2 88.2 85.7 -2.8 -1.3 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 1.6 3.7 1.6 4.0 91.3 89.5 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 1.4 3.7 3.6 4.1 92.1 90.6 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -0.4 1.5 0.7 3.9 89.8 88.6 -4.8 -3.2 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 1.7 4.3 3.7 4.0 93.1 91.5 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -2.6 0.0 0.5 5.1 91.2 90.5 -8.2 -6.2 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 1.8 4.2 3.3 3.6 90.8 88.8 -2.9 -1.1 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 1.4 3.7 3.7 3.9 92.0 90.6 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 1.7 4.5 3.6 4.0 93.9 92.2 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 1.2 3.2 2.2 3.7 91.1 89.3 -2.8 -1.3 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 1.8 4.1 3.4 3.9 90.7 88.9 -3.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 0.7 3.7 2.2 5.2 95.3 94.5 -3.2 -1.8 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 2.4 5.8 4.2 4.4 93.5 91.8 -3.1 -1.1 0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 0.1 1.2 0.9 3.0 83.6 81.6 -4.5 -2.8 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -1.2 1.0 0.4 4.6 91.0 90.1 -5.9 -4.2 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 2.0 4.9 4.0 4.1 93.2 91.6 -2.8 -1.0 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------