***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 6.6 7.5 6.1 2.9 78.0 73.1 2.4 4.2 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 6.2 7.1 6.0 3.0 78.4 73.7 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 8.1 9.1 6.2 3.0 78.4 73.5 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 3.1 3.9 4.0 2.8 77.0 72.7 -1.7 0.4 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 7.2 7.9 4.5 2.9 77.1 72.6 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 7.2 7.8 4.0 2.7 76.4 71.6 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 5.8 6.7 5.8 2.8 77.7 73.0 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 1.5 2.0 4.1 2.7 76.8 72.1 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 8.3 9.1 5.4 3.0 78.0 72.9 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 7.4 8.1 4.8 2.9 77.5 72.5 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 7.6 8.2 4.3 2.7 76.1 71.9 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 8.2 8.7 4.2 2.6 75.5 71.5 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.6 8.0 3.9 2.5 74.6 70.7 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 8.7 9.9 6.0 3.2 79.2 73.8 3.5 5.8 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 5.9 6.4 4.2 2.7 76.4 72.2 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 8.2 8.8 4.1 2.7 75.6 71.6 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 5.4 6.4 5.9 3.0 78.8 73.9 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 5.0 5.7 4.8 2.9 77.5 72.1 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 7.0 8.1 6.3 3.1 79.0 74.1 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 4.7 5.4 3.2 2.6 76.1 71.0 0.6 2.4 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 7.8 8.7 5.9 3.0 78.4 73.4 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 6.4 7.5 6.2 3.2 80.3 75.0 2.1 4.0 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 6.8 7.8 6.5 3.2 79.5 74.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 8.0 8.9 5.8 3.1 78.4 73.1 3.7 5.5 7.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 6.3 7.1 4.7 2.9 78.3 73.4 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.2 3.7 2.3 74.2 70.5 3.2 4.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 7.7 8.6 5.5 2.9 78.2 73.1 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 7.5 8.2 4.2 2.9 76.6 72.4 2.6 4.7 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 4.7 5.4 4.2 2.7 76.3 71.2 0.2 2.2 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 6.2 7.1 6.1 2.9 78.1 73.4 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------