***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.8 3.8 -0.7 39.8 43.9 3.4 4.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.6 4.0 -0.5 42.9 46.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.2 4.4 -0.4 43.6 46.6 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.1 0.6 1.7 -0.1 48.6 50.6 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.0 2.8 -0.3 45.9 48.3 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.5 3.8 1.6 -1.1 34.6 39.6 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.2 3.8 -0.6 40.3 44.1 2.7 3.8 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.1 -0.3 3.0 0.2 52.5 52.7 -1.3 -0.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.8 3.8 -0.1 48.0 49.8 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.2 3.5 0.1 51.2 51.7 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.2 3.2 -0.2 47.4 49.3 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.5 3.0 0.0 49.4 50.8 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.8 2.8 -0.4 44.0 46.7 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.1 4.7 0.2 52.5 52.4 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.1 3.0 0.0 50.3 52.3 3.1 4.0 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.5 2.6 -0.4 44.2 46.8 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.2 4.0 -0.4 43.7 46.4 2.6 3.6 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.5 3.6 0.2 53.0 52.9 2.4 3.3 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.3 4.2 -0.4 44.6 47.3 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.6 2.4 0.3 55.1 54.0 1.2 2.3 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.1 4.1 -0.4 44.5 47.3 4.4 5.5 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.0 4.2 -0.2 46.9 48.7 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.3 4.6 -0.2 47.4 49.2 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.9 4.4 0.0 50.4 51.1 4.7 5.9 7.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.8 2.7 -0.6 40.6 44.6 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.3 2.3 -0.4 43.3 46.4 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.5 3.3 -0.8 38.1 42.6 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.9 2.3 -0.1 48.4 50.5 4.0 5.0 5.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.6 3.2 0.3 54.7 54.0 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.6 3.9 -0.6 41.7 45.1 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------