***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 3.1 4.4 -2.2 26.0 29.5 4.0 5.8 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.7 2.7 4.7 -1.9 28.5 32.8 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.1 4.2 5.2 -1.7 31.5 34.8 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -1.2 -1.5 1.5 -2.4 24.6 28.4 -0.3 1.8 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.5 3.3 2.8 -2.6 23.2 26.5 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 2.4 1.4 0.6 -4.1 12.5 15.7 4.2 6.0 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.5 2.4 4.4 -2.0 26.2 30.5 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 -2.4 -2.8 1.8 -3.1 18.2 21.3 -0.8 1.0 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.6 4.4 4.2 -2.1 27.6 31.1 5.1 7.1 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.4 3.2 2.8 -2.7 23.3 26.4 4.4 6.2 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.8 3.4 3.4 -2.6 23.9 27.3 4.5 6.4 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 3.3 2.8 2.3 -2.9 18.9 22.3 4.7 6.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 2.9 2.3 2.5 -3.6 16.4 19.6 4.5 6.3 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 7.6 5.2 5.0 -1.4 35.7 38.2 4.8 6.9 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.1 4.5 -1.0 36.6 39.4 3.8 5.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 3.5 3.0 2.2 -3.2 18.6 21.9 4.9 6.8 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.2 2.5 4.4 -1.7 29.0 33.2 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 2.1 2.0 2.4 -2.8 23.2 26.2 3.0 4.6 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 3.2 4.9 -1.7 30.7 34.6 3.5 5.5 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 0.0 -0.4 0.5 -3.6 15.7 18.8 2.0 3.9 5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.1 4.1 5.0 -1.9 29.8 33.1 4.5 6.4 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.9 3.4 4.9 -1.4 32.5 36.2 3.4 5.2 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.3 4.0 5.1 -1.5 33.8 37.1 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.0 5.0 4.7 -1.8 32.2 35.2 5.1 7.2 9.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.9 2.5 3.2 -2.7 22.2 25.6 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 3.1 2.3 1.3 -3.7 12.9 16.6 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 3.2 2.8 3.6 -2.7 21.7 25.1 4.3 6.1 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.5 3.9 2.9 -1.9 30.3 33.2 4.2 5.9 7.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 0.4 0.2 1.8 -3.0 20.6 23.7 1.8 3.7 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.8 2.7 4.7 -2.0 27.8 31.9 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------