***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 0.9 1.9 2.3 3.0 80.7 75.4 -2.7 -1.2 0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 0.4 1.3 1.8 2.7 78.5 73.0 -3.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 2.0 2.8 2.2 3.0 80.4 75.2 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 -3.3 -2.9 -0.8 2.4 74.9 71.3 -7.0 -5.4 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 0.0 0.7 0.4 3.0 79.0 74.9 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 -0.4 -0.4 -2.4 2.2 72.3 69.9 -3.8 -2.4 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.8 79.2 73.5 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 -4.7 -4.4 -1.9 2.4 73.6 70.3 -8.1 -6.6 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 0.7 1.2 0.3 2.7 77.5 73.7 -2.7 -1.2 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 0.1 0.4 -1.2 2.5 74.8 71.3 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 0.3 0.8 -0.3 2.8 77.0 73.3 -3.3 -1.8 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 -0.6 0.0 -0.7 3.0 77.7 73.7 -3.8 -2.5 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.6 -1.0 2.8 76.9 73.2 -3.7 -2.1 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 0.7 1.0 -0.2 2.5 75.4 71.2 -2.5 -1.1 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.1 73.9 70.7 -2.7 -1.5 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 0.7 1.2 -0.8 2.8 76.8 73.3 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.6 76.4 71.1 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 -1.3 -1.0 -1.7 2.5 74.6 70.7 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 0.4 1.2 1.7 2.7 78.4 73.0 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 -3.6 -3.2 -2.6 2.6 74.4 70.7 -7.4 -5.7 -4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 0.5 1.4 1.7 3.0 80.3 75.5 -2.9 -1.4 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 75.6 70.5 -3.1 -1.6 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 0.2 0.9 1.3 2.5 77.4 72.5 -3.2 -1.7 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.4 -0.2 2.5 75.8 71.6 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.9 79.3 74.4 -3.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 0.2 0.7 -0.9 2.9 77.5 73.8 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 1.1 2.1 2.1 3.1 80.7 75.3 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 2.4 74.7 71.5 -4.1 -2.7 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 -2.6 -2.4 -2.4 2.4 73.1 69.6 -5.9 -4.5 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.8 79.6 74.0 -2.9 -1.3 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------