***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 -2.1 -2.5 -1.0 -2.2 24.6 28.7 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -2.5 -2.9 -1.1 -2.0 25.7 30.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 -2.2 25.2 29.8 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -6.2 -6.6 -3.1 -2.0 26.3 30.8 -5.8 -4.1 -2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 -3.6 -3.9 -2.9 -2.8 20.9 24.6 -2.7 -1.3 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 -4.7 -5.7 -6.1 -3.7 12.9 16.7 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -2.4 -2.8 -1.1 -2.1 25.2 30.6 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 -8.3 -9.7 -6.6 -4.5 10.0 14.1 -6.8 -5.4 -4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 -2.3 -2.5 -2.6 -2.3 24.7 28.7 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 -3.3 -4.0 -5.1 -3.6 15.6 20.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 -3.6 -4.1 -3.8 -3.2 17.6 21.6 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 -4.6 -5.6 -5.5 -4.2 12.0 15.7 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 -4.4 -5.2 -4.8 -3.6 14.4 18.3 -3.0 -1.4 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -1.5 -2.0 -3.2 -2.6 22.6 27.8 -1.1 0.0 1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.9 -0.4 -0.7 39.2 40.9 -2.4 -1.2 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 -3.2 -3.9 -4.6 -3.5 14.6 18.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -2.7 -1.0 -1.7 28.6 33.7 -2.4 -1.1 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 -4.8 -5.4 -5.1 -3.2 17.9 22.5 -3.9 -2.5 -1.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -2.3 -2.6 -1.2 -2.1 24.8 29.8 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 -9.4 -10.7 -7.3 -4.5 11.2 14.9 -7.4 -5.6 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -2.4 -2.6 -1.1 -2.0 27.1 30.9 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -2.5 -2.7 -0.9 -1.8 27.6 32.1 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -2.8 -1.6 -2.3 22.4 27.4 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 -2.3 25.3 30.2 -2.0 -0.8 0.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 -2.4 -2.8 -1.7 -2.6 22.4 26.9 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 -3.7 -4.5 -5.1 -3.9 12.4 15.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 -3.0 -3.5 -1.5 -2.5 22.9 27.3 -2.4 -0.8 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -1.6 31.9 34.9 -3.5 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 -6.2 -7.3 -7.0 -4.3 12.1 16.5 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -2.5 -3.0 -1.1 -2.3 23.6 28.8 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------