***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.8 12.9 10.6 99.2 62.5 52.2 5.6 9.4 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.7 11.0 113.3 67.8 57.5 4.5 7.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.3 15.8 10.9 105.2 64.4 53.4 6.1 10.5 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.7 12.2 98.7 62.2 50.5 6.8 10.6 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.1 11.8 101.7 63.0 51.3 6.0 10.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.8 12.9 101.4 63.4 52.9 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.4 10.9 112.0 67.6 57.2 4.7 7.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.3 19.7 13.5 107.8 65.2 53.1 9.1 14.0 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.1 11.4 11.4 98.7 61.5 49.8 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.8 14.8 12.8 104.5 63.7 51.1 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.8 12.5 11.9 105.6 64.5 52.1 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.9 12.1 105.4 64.3 52.9 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.4 14.7 12.6 102.6 63.4 53.0 7.0 10.9 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.0 22.2 13.7 118.1 68.8 55.0 8.0 13.3 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.1 13.3 13.0 96.6 62.5 49.8 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.7 12.0 104.4 64.2 52.7 5.5 8.9 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.6 11.3 119.4 69.8 58.5 4.2 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.1 14.6 14.0 106.6 64.5 51.3 5.2 9.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.8 11.2 115.3 68.3 57.4 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 18.7 18.0 110.7 66.3 54.3 7.1 12.1 18.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.6 13.0 11.0 99.2 61.7 50.3 5.2 9.3 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.5 11.6 118.6 69.4 57.7 3.5 6.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.8 11.9 120.5 69.8 57.4 4.3 7.5 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.8 17.8 12.7 109.4 65.6 52.5 6.0 11.1 17.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.2 11.2 11.8 97.0 61.2 50.9 3.5 7.5 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.8 12.0 12.5 97.1 61.2 51.5 5.7 9.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.5 12.2 11.2 97.2 61.6 51.9 4.2 8.3 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.5 12.1 12.6 100.8 63.4 51.1 5.3 8.7 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 10.6 26.0 15.5 110.5 66.0 52.6 10.8 17.6 26.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.0 10.7 107.9 65.9 55.8 4.9 8.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------