***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.0 4.8 4.6 -0.6 39.9 44.0 4.3 5.4 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.3 4.7 -0.6 40.1 44.2 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.9 5.2 -0.5 42.3 45.6 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.0 2.3 -0.1 48.8 50.7 0.0 1.1 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.5 3.3 -0.5 42.0 45.8 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.1 2.8 -0.4 42.2 47.5 4.5 5.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.0 4.5 -0.8 37.9 42.8 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -1.0 -0.2 3.0 -0.4 42.1 46.7 -0.7 0.3 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.3 4.3 -0.4 44.0 47.1 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.5 3.6 -0.4 43.8 47.4 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.7 3.6 -0.5 42.5 46.3 5.1 6.2 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.9 5.7 3.2 -0.5 41.6 46.3 5.2 6.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.6 5.4 3.3 -0.6 40.1 45.5 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.5 5.0 -0.1 47.8 49.5 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.8 3.6 0.0 50.3 52.0 4.0 4.8 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.3 6.1 3.2 -0.5 41.8 46.3 5.5 6.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.1 3.8 4.6 -0.6 40.5 44.6 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 3.8 3.6 -0.3 45.3 48.6 3.1 4.0 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.9 4.9 -0.5 41.7 45.2 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.9 2.6 2.1 -0.5 41.4 46.6 2.1 3.2 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.8 4.8 -0.5 42.4 45.9 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.7 4.6 4.8 -0.4 43.6 46.4 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 5.0 5.2 -0.4 44.1 46.7 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.5 4.7 -0.2 46.2 48.6 5.6 6.7 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.0 4.6 3.5 -0.6 39.7 44.2 4.2 5.2 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.4 4.9 2.7 -0.7 37.0 43.3 4.7 5.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 5.4 4.2 -0.7 37.8 42.8 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.4 3.0 0.0 49.8 51.6 4.5 5.5 6.3 28 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.9 2.8 3.2 -0.3 44.9 48.5 2.1 3.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.7 4.4 4.6 -0.7 39.6 43.8 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------