***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 4.2 3.6 4.4 -3.2 14.4 16.8 5.8 7.4 8.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 3.9 3.6 4.7 -2.9 17.9 20.3 5.2 6.7 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 5.2 4.9 5.1 -2.9 19.2 21.7 6.4 7.9 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 2.4 -1.7 29.2 31.7 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 4.7 4.4 3.3 -3.0 18.1 20.3 6.1 7.8 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 4.1 3.3 1.9 -3.5 13.9 16.8 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 3.5 3.0 4.3 -3.2 14.4 16.8 5.1 6.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 -0.7 -1.1 2.5 -3.0 17.0 20.0 0.5 2.0 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 5.5 5.3 4.3 -2.8 20.1 22.3 6.8 8.5 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 5.0 4.7 3.4 -2.9 19.9 22.6 6.2 7.8 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 4.6 4.3 3.9 -3.1 18.5 20.7 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 4.5 4.1 2.9 -3.2 15.4 18.0 6.3 8.1 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 4.3 3.6 3.5 -3.8 13.9 16.3 6.2 8.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.3 6.2 5.2 -2.2 27.5 29.6 6.7 8.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.1 4.6 -1.2 32.6 34.8 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 5.1 4.7 3.2 -3.4 16.5 18.7 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 3.3 3.2 4.4 -2.6 19.8 22.0 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 3.5 3.3 3.0 -2.9 20.5 23.2 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 4.2 4.1 5.0 -2.7 20.3 22.5 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.4 -3.4 14.6 17.8 3.0 4.8 6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 5.1 4.8 4.9 -2.9 18.4 20.8 6.4 8.0 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.4 4.4 5.0 -2.2 24.5 26.4 5.2 6.5 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 4.9 4.9 5.2 -2.5 23.2 25.3 5.8 7.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 6.5 6.3 4.8 -2.6 23.5 26.0 7.2 8.7 10.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 4.0 3.5 3.6 -3.1 15.1 17.6 5.4 6.8 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 4.7 3.2 1.8 -4.0 7.9 10.5 6.5 8.0 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 4.5 3.7 3.8 -3.5 12.2 14.5 6.3 7.9 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.1 3.5 -1.6 31.1 33.3 5.2 6.7 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 2.1 1.8 2.6 -2.9 19.8 22.5 3.3 4.9 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 3.9 3.6 4.6 -3.0 16.4 18.8 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------