***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 -2.3 -3.8 -1.6 -4.0 7.6 9.2 -0.5 1.0 2.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 -2.6 -3.5 -1.5 -3.5 10.7 12.6 -0.9 0.6 1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 -0.5 -1.3 -1.2 -3.6 11.1 12.8 1.0 2.3 3.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 -6.1 -6.3 -3.0 -2.3 16.7 18.6 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 -3.3 -3.9 -2.5 -3.4 13.0 14.2 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 -4.2 -4.3 -4.4 -2.9 16.1 17.6 -2.0 -0.2 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 -2.5 -3.5 -1.5 -3.6 9.3 11.3 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 -7.3 -7.3 -4.2 -3.0 17.2 18.5 -5.6 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 -2.0 -2.4 -2.4 -3.2 14.4 15.5 -0.4 1.0 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 -2.7 -2.8 -3.6 -3.0 16.7 18.0 -1.0 0.6 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 -3.6 -3.8 -2.7 -3.2 15.1 16.2 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 -4.4 -4.8 -3.5 -3.4 14.2 15.4 -2.2 -0.5 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 -3.9 -4.4 -3.4 -3.3 14.2 15.7 -1.8 0.0 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -2.3 -2.5 22.1 23.1 -0.2 1.1 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 -2.1 -2.4 -1.1 -2.1 17.7 19.9 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 -2.6 -2.9 -3.2 -3.1 15.0 16.1 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 -2.5 -3.1 -1.4 -3.1 13.2 15.3 -1.1 0.1 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 -4.6 -4.3 -3.8 -2.7 20.0 21.3 -2.8 -1.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 -2.3 -3.0 -1.5 -3.4 11.5 13.1 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 -8.3 -8.2 -5.1 -3.2 18.1 19.6 -5.9 -3.7 -1.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 -2.4 -3.1 -1.6 -3.5 11.9 13.2 -0.7 0.8 2.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 -2.4 -2.7 -1.2 -2.9 15.3 17.1 -1.0 0.2 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 97 3 0 100 -2.1 -2.6 -1.6 -3.3 13.0 14.3 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 -1.4 -1.3 -2.3 -2.7 19.4 20.6 -0.3 0.8 1.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 -2.4 -3.8 -2.0 -3.8 8.5 10.1 -0.5 1.0 2.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -3.3 -4.4 -3.9 -3.9 9.6 10.9 -1.3 0.3 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 -2.7 -4.5 -1.9 -4.1 7.3 9.0 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 -3.5 -3.7 -2.4 -2.2 18.4 20.6 -2.1 -0.5 0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 -4.6 -4.4 -4.5 -2.5 23.8 24.9 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 -2.4 -3.5 -1.4 -3.7 9.3 11.0 -0.6 0.8 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------