***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.5 4.5 0.0 49.5 49.1 2.9 4.6 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.7 4.3 -0.2 47.8 47.8 2.2 3.9 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.2 4.9 -0.1 49.2 48.4 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -2.2 0.2 2.0 0.0 49.6 48.8 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.9 3.0 -0.1 48.9 48.7 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.8 2.8 0.2 51.8 51.2 2.9 4.6 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.5 4.4 -0.2 48.2 48.1 2.0 3.7 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.2 -0.6 2.8 -0.1 49.4 49.5 -2.1 -0.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.6 3.9 0.0 49.9 49.2 3.8 5.6 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.0 3.4 0.0 50.3 49.7 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.1 2.9 -0.2 48.3 48.5 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.2 2.9 -0.1 48.5 48.9 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.8 2.4 -0.3 47.1 48.2 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.3 4.3 -0.1 49.0 48.1 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.7 3.1 0.3 53.2 51.3 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.5 2.6 -0.2 48.0 48.4 3.9 5.7 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.3 4.4 -0.2 47.9 47.5 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.1 3.4 0.1 50.5 50.0 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.2 4.5 -0.2 47.8 47.5 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.4 2.2 1.8 -0.2 48.2 49.3 0.7 2.4 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.4 4.4 0.0 50.1 49.4 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.7 4.3 -0.3 47.0 46.8 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.1 4.9 -0.2 48.4 47.3 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.5 4.2 0.0 49.6 48.7 3.7 5.5 7.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.4 3.1 -0.1 49.3 49.2 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.3 2.2 -0.4 45.3 47.1 3.2 4.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.1 4.1 0.0 49.5 49.2 3.5 5.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.2 2.6 0.2 51.8 50.2 3.1 5.0 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.9 2.9 0.0 49.7 49.8 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.8 4.4 -0.2 48.1 48.0 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------