***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 -0.8 -0.4 0.7 -1.4 32.3 33.6 -0.3 1.2 2.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 -0.1 -2.0 25.8 27.3 -0.6 0.8 2.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 0.7 1.0 0.5 -1.6 31.2 32.4 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -4.7 -4.4 -1.8 -1.2 34.3 35.6 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 1.2 -0.8 -0.5 -1.2 36.5 37.7 -1.2 0.5 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 0.7 -1.4 -2.5 -1.0 38.2 39.6 -2.0 -0.1 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 -1.6 -1.1 0.0 -1.9 26.8 28.4 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -6.2 -6.0 -3.3 -1.9 29.9 32.2 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 1.8 0.3 -0.5 -1.0 38.3 39.5 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -1.1 -0.9 -2.5 -1.7 32.0 33.9 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 38.5 39.7 -1.4 0.3 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 0.3 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2 36.8 38.5 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 0.6 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 41.3 42.3 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 -2.0 -2.0 29.0 30.8 0.0 1.3 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 1.3 0.3 0.7 -0.4 44.3 44.7 -0.8 0.8 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 1.7 0.1 -1.3 -1.0 39.0 40.2 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 -2.0 -1.7 -0.6 -2.2 23.1 24.9 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -3.3 -3.3 -3.5 -2.1 28.3 30.6 -2.8 -1.1 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 -0.1 -1.9 26.6 28.0 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 -7.0 -7.0 -4.6 -2.5 25.8 28.6 -5.9 -3.7 -1.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 1.6 -0.2 0.5 -1.1 36.4 37.4 -0.5 1.0 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 -1.9 -1.6 -0.5 -2.2 24.0 25.4 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3 -1.8 27.8 29.1 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 -1.6 -1.7 31.0 32.5 -0.1 1.0 2.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -0.8 -0.2 0.3 -1.3 34.8 35.9 -0.4 1.2 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 1.1 -0.7 -1.4 -1.0 38.6 40.0 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -0.8 -0.2 0.6 -1.4 34.0 35.2 -0.3 1.4 3.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 0.3 -1.5 -1.1 -1.0 37.8 38.9 -2.0 -0.4 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 -4.2 -4.1 -4.6 -2.4 26.4 28.7 -3.4 -1.9 -0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 -1.2 -0.9 0.3 -1.8 27.6 29.0 -0.3 1.1 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------