***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 41.2 43.0 52.5 105.9 61.1 55.0 26.9 36.0 46.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 37.8 40.7 48.9 109.3 63.5 54.4 25.3 33.3 42.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 48.6 54.0 54.3 111.3 65.0 56.8 31.8 42.8 55.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 53.1 61.6 66.4 115.7 67.6 59.2 34.3 46.6 60.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 48.6 58.0 63.8 117.3 69.0 61.0 33.8 44.1 55.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 49.9 50.3 62.7 121.6 71.6 63.9 26.6 35.6 45.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 39.1 41.3 47.2 107.3 62.2 54.0 25.7 34.3 43.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 75.2 75.7 70.1 119.0 70.1 62.3 47.7 59.2 71.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 39.9 49.1 64.0 117.9 69.5 61.0 26.1 35.6 46.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 60.2 62.7 69.0 120.7 71.5 63.0 35.3 46.2 57.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 57.7 59.6 66.1 121.9 71.9 63.9 31.8 42.5 54.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 62.1 61.8 65.3 119.1 70.2 62.7 33.1 44.8 57.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 59.3 56.3 64.5 113.7 66.8 60.5 34.6 44.6 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 62.3 69.8 66.4 113.2 66.4 57.0 44.6 56.4 69.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 55.0 68.8 66.6 117.7 68.3 58.9 29.1 45.5 65.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 56.1 53.0 62.2 114.7 67.3 60.4 29.2 39.7 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.8 42.5 46.2 106.2 61.5 52.9 27.0 35.8 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 56.5 56.6 68.9 116.5 68.8 60.9 35.5 44.7 54.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 28.2 47.2 50.9 110.6 64.4 54.7 28.4 37.7 48.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 56.8 62.3 81.9 109.4 63.7 57.0 38.7 50.9 64.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 44.3 51.2 59.2 113.4 66.4 58.8 29.3 39.4 51.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 29.1 46.4 49.5 108.3 62.9 53.2 29.3 38.5 48.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 28.5 46.6 54.6 111.9 65.4 55.1 28.7 37.3 46.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 55.5 62.4 63.1 114.8 67.6 58.8 41.4 51.1 61.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 41.1 43.9 60.5 108.3 62.8 56.7 28.9 37.0 45.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 43.6 47.5 62.1 108.2 62.8 57.3 29.9 39.4 49.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 43.7 45.5 54.6 105.4 60.8 55.2 28.2 38.1 49.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 56.2 55.7 65.1 119.2 69.5 60.5 26.4 38.0 52.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 75.7 85.1 72.2 113.2 66.5 59.2 55.1 69.4 84.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 39.0 42.4 49.8 109.0 63.3 54.7 25.2 34.0 44.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------