***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 3.9 2.4 3.4 -4.8 8.8 11.3 5.9 7.7 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 3.8 2.4 3.4 -4.8 9.1 11.9 5.6 7.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 4.8 3.0 3.4 -5.2 8.1 11.1 6.8 8.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 -1.7 -4.8 -1.2 -6.0 4.0 6.7 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 4.4 1.9 1.3 -5.7 5.7 8.5 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 4.2 2.2 0.8 -5.2 7.7 11.8 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 3.7 2.4 3.5 -4.6 10.1 12.6 5.5 7.2 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 -1.4 -3.4 1.0 -5.3 7.1 11.8 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 5.0 2.8 2.4 -5.4 6.4 9.4 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 4.5 2.4 1.5 -5.7 6.8 10.7 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 4.3 1.8 2.0 -5.7 6.4 9.6 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 4.8 2.6 1.6 -5.2 6.8 11.2 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 4.5 2.8 2.8 -5.0 9.9 13.8 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 5.1 3.2 2.8 -5.6 8.3 12.2 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 3.6 1.2 1.1 -5.2 3.8 7.0 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 5.1 2.9 1.5 -5.6 7.1 10.4 7.3 9.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 3.0 1.6 3.0 -4.7 8.9 11.4 4.9 6.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 3.0 1.2 1.2 -5.7 7.5 11.7 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 4.1 2.5 3.4 -4.9 8.8 11.9 6.0 7.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 1.6 -0.2 0.7 -5.0 10.1 15.5 3.2 5.1 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 4.6 2.4 3.0 -5.5 6.4 9.2 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 3.7 2.1 3.1 -4.9 8.2 10.9 5.6 7.2 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 4.3 2.7 3.4 -5.0 8.8 12.3 6.1 7.7 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 5.6 3.7 2.7 -5.6 7.7 11.4 7.5 9.2 10.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 3.9 2.1 2.2 -5.1 7.6 10.1 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 5.3 3.9 2.1 -4.2 10.5 15.8 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 4.8 3.4 3.2 -4.7 9.7 12.1 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 3.4 0.5 -0.3 -6.0 3.6 6.6 5.4 6.9 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 1.9 0.0 1.1 -5.4 8.9 13.7 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 4.0 2.6 3.5 -4.7 9.3 12.1 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------